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Analysis: US Plans on Syria
Bassel Oudat
Ahramonline, Nov. 20, 2020Changes in US policy towards Syria after the election of President-elect Joe Biden in November’s US presidential elections remain unclear in scale and direction, and there has been little clarity on the team Biden will choose to manage the Syria issue in Washington.This lack of clarity has also been the case for the new administration’s position on the Syrian conflict, a potential political solution, Russia’s involvement in the Middle East, the question of Iran and its nuclear programme and still-frozen assets, the treatment of the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah, and US sanctions against Syria, Iran and Russia.US policy on Syria will likely change, however, and it will do so in the light of the many changes that have occurred since Biden left the administration of former US president Barack Obama in 2016, where he was vice-president.
Biden sought then to enforce democratic and human rights in Syria, while also arguing for US troops on the ground.While it will be difficult for him to implement these policies in Syria now, owing to circumstances on the ground, Biden, like Obama, may continue with his former policy of being lenient towards the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, not seeking to destabilise it but relying instead on a policy of “reforming its behavior” even though this has been shown to be futile.Outgoing US president Donald Trump increased the pressure on the Syrian regime and abandoned the former carrot-and-stick policy of the Obama administration. Biden’s name was closely connected to the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and fighting the Islamic State (IS) group when he was vice-president, issues that remained in place under Trump.
Biden was partially responsible for the failure to reach a solution in Syria when he was vice-president under Obama. This will likely make him more involved in Syria after his investiture in January, despite the presence of several obstacles that could block any progress on Syria.
There is the presence of Turkish troops in northern Syria, for example, which Biden tried to block when he was vice-president, creating tensions in relations between Washington and Ankara.
The Russian intervention in Syria in late 2015 is another challenge facing the president-elect, one that was not present during Obama’s tenure. Russia’s attempts to steer the Syrian issue, taking advantage of the fact that Washington has been exclusively focused on US interests, will also be a challenge. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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The Israeli Interest: Keep Syria Weak
Dr. Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, Oct. 2, 2020
This paper briefly surveys the current situation in Syria (autumn 2020) and assesses the preferred situation for Israel regarding Syria over the next period.
Syria at the present time remains in a state of flux, but since March there has been little movement in the unresolved situation in the country. March witnessed the conclusion of the regime and Russian offensive against Turkish and allied Sunni Islamist forces in the north west of the country. The Syrian government side made gains, reaching the M4 highway between Aleppo and the coast. It did not, however, succeed in reconquering the entirety of southern Idleb Province. As a result, the rebel and Turkish enclave in the north west remains intact. There are rumors of an additional offensive in the offing by the regime with Russian support.
East of the Euphrates, similarly, despite the Turkish incursion in October-November 2019, and the establishment of a Turkish enclave between the towns of Ain Issa and Tal Tamr, and the subsequent entry of government forces east of the river, the Kurdish dominated autonomous authority which governs that area remains intact and in control.
The US has not withdrawn from this area, either, despite the announcement by President Trump in October 2018. The number of forces in the area have been reduced, and future arrangements remain deeply uncertain. But the presence remains, and indeed in mid-September the US deployed six additional six Bradley fighting vehicles to eastern Syria, to enable the 500 or so remaining US troops there to cope better with Russian attempts at harassment and intimidation of the force.
On the political level, the Syrian situation also remains at stalemate. The Constitutional Committee, established under the auspices of the United Nations, intended to draw up a new charter to pave the way for elections, remains on hold. There seems little likelihood of this process producing anything of value, particularly when the three-way de facto division of the country remains. Presidential elections are due to be held in summer, 2021. Similarly, in addition to the empty formality of ‘elections’ under a dictatorial system, it is difficult to see how even the semblance of a countrywide election could be held, given the absence of a single authority over the entire country.
The economic situation facing the country is dire. There are bread shortages and shortages of basic goods. There are wheat and fuel shortages. Long queues of poorer citizens lining up to receive subsidized basic foodstuffs have been a common early morning sight in Damascus for several years. The economic crisis in Lebanon is also affecting Syria. US sanctions are set to prevent any road to recovery, despite recent joint Syrian government and Russian declarations of a new strategy for reconstruction.
A Three-Way Division
The situation within both the Turkish controlled area and the SDF area east of the Euphrates remains deeply unstable. Around 12,000 Turkish troops are now deployed in this area, along with former rebels organized by Turkey under the banner of the ‘Syrian National Army’ (Jaish al-Watani) and Islamist militias, most powerful of which remains Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian franchise of al-Qaeda. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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Factbox: Iranian Influence and Presence in Syria
Navvar Saban
Atlantic Council, Nov. 5, 2020
Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Iran has found different approaches to increase its military and security influence in Syria. The first approach was by directly working with foreign militias and recruiting local militias. The second approach was created from the core of the first one. Its main objective was to integrate local Iranian militias into Bashar al-Assad’s military and its security branches to give them a legal standing in Syria and an umbrella of protection from possible Israeli or US air strikes.
However, with a decrease in military operations in Syria, Iran began searching for new ways to enhance its control and influence in different Syrian provinces, especially after its success in infiltrating the regime’s army and security apparatus.
Since the beginning of 2017, Iran has turned some of its focus on infiltrating Syrian society and strengthening its relations with Syrian businessmen. This factbox presents a limited summary of Iran’s military and security power in Syria, revealing the extent of its sway over Syrian society and its economy.
Iranian’s military influence and presence in Syria
During the last several years, the Iranian military involvement in Syria has grown and become more visible, which has made targeting them an easy job for the Israeli air force. As a result, in 2017-2018, Iran had to find a different approach for its military involvement in order to protect its militias. Iran then began the ambitious plan of redefining its presence in Syria by creating the Local Defense Forces (LDF), supporting specific brigades within the Syrian army and, most recently, establishing local private security companies.
The following two maps explain the massive transformation of Iranian influence and control between 2013 and 2020. In 2013, Iran’s military influence was indirect and through the presence of Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah (Map 1).
Iran encouraged the Shia minority in Syria to form special militias and recruited Sunnis—especially clans—in the provinces of Aleppo, Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor. In addition, some of the Shia militias in Syria were and continue to be recruited on a sectarian basis under the pretext of defending places considered holy by the Shia community. For example, campaigns are being conducted in the areas housing holy Shia shrines in Damascus in the Sayeda Zeinab district.
After individuals are recruited, they are sent for about twenty-one to forty-five days of light and medium arms training and sometimes for six months for heavy weapons training. The Syrian militias backed or formed by Iran are divided into several groups.
National Defense Forces: The formation of the National Defense Forces (NDF) began in 2012 with Iranian guidance and support in the city of Homs. It included members of all sects—Sunnis, Alawites, and Druze—and has headquarters in each province. The NDF was considered the largest Syrian militia in terms of number and outreach, with an estimated forty thousand fighters. Iran demanded that the Syrian regime legitimize these forces like the Shia Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq and integrate them into the Assad regime’s military. … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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New Report Sheds Light On True Scope Of Hezbollah’s Presence in Southern Syria
Yaakov Lappin
JNS, Nov. 10, 2020
Hezbollah’s presence in southern Syria is significantly larger than previously known by the public, according to recently released report released by the Alma Research and Education Center.
Alma’s goal is to further geopolitical knowledge about the Middle East among English speakers. Based in the Galilee, the organization was founded by Lt. Col. (res.) Sarit Zehavi, who has served for 15 years in the Israeli Defense Forces, specializing in Military Intelligence.
The latest report revealed the location of 58 sites linked to Hezbollah’s activities in southern Syria, in the Quneitra and Dara’a provinces.
Two primary Hezbollah units, acting under Iranian patronage, are responsible for this deployment: The “Southern Command,” made up of veteran Hezbollah operatives embedded in the ranks of the Syrian Armed Forces; and the “Golan File” unit, which involves Hezbollah commanders orchestrating localized terror cells, made up of Syrians.
Alma’s report highlights the presence of 30 Golan File locations and a further 28 Southern Command unit sites. “In the research, we were able to reach exact coordinates in some places and a general location in the rest,” the report stated.
Maj. (res.) Tal Beeri, director of Alma’s research department, told JNS that both of these Hezbollah efforts are operational, and both are designed to create new opportunities to attack Israeli military and civilian targets during both routine times and in security escalations.
Beeri, who spent 20 years as an IDF intelligence officer specializing in Lebanon and Syria, described how Hezbollah’s Southern Command was formed, saying that its initial goal “was to facilitate the Syrian army’s retaking of southern Syria. It trained and assisted the Syrian army, which retook territory from rebel organizations that since 2012 came to control nearly all of southern Syria.”
According to Beeri, the Southern Command “is a unit made up of hardcore Lebanese Hezbollah personnel. Each one is tied to the Syrian army as an educator, with an emphasis on the 1st Corps [of the Syrian Army] in southern Syria. They accompanied [Syrian President Bashar] Assad’s forces as they retook the area.”
Beeri added that Alma has gotten hold of a video showing a Syrian military unit in training with its commander summarizing the drill and “thanking the Hezbollah operative standing next to him for the assistance. It’s an unequivocally incriminating video showing that Hezbollah came and helped the Syrian army. It is totally embedded in it, sitting in Syrian bases, in Syrian army uniforms. There is a photo of a joint patrol—anyone looking at it would think the Hezbollah operative was another officer in the Syrian army.” … [To read the full article, click the following LINK – Ed.]
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For Further Reference:
Israel Killed 15 Iranian-Backed Militiamen in Syrian Strike, Says War Monitor: United With Israel, Nov. 22, 2020 — An airstrike carried by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) on Saturday night in Al-Bukamal killed 15 Iranian-backed militiamen, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported Sunday.
Bombs Planted Near Syrian Border Were Designed To Inflict Maximum Damage: Yoav Zitun, Ynet, Nov. 18, 2020 — The explosive devices placed on the Israel-Syrian border and uncovered on Tuesday were anti-personnel mines activated remotely and designed to cause maximum injury to IDF troops.
Faisal Mekdad Named As Syria’s New Foreign Minister: Khaled Yacoub Oweis, N World, Nov. 23, 2020 — Baath Party official Faisal Mekdad was appointed on Sunday as Syrian Foreign Minister, a post that has historically been given to loyalist Sunnis who acted as the public face of the regime since the Assad family rule began five decades ago.
Outgoing Syria Envoy Admits Hiding US Troop Numbers; Praises Trump’s Mideast Record: Katie Bo Williams, Defense One, Nov. 12, 2020 — Four years after signing the now-infamous “Never Trump” letter condemning then-presidential candidate Donald Trump as a danger to America, retiring diplomat Jim Jeffrey is recommending that the incoming Biden administration stick with Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East.
US Should Stay in Eastern Syria, a Refuge of Religious Freedom – Expert: Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, Nov. 17, 2020 — The US has a unique opportunity in eastern Syria to continue to play a positive role in the region, where religious freedom is flourishing, according to a US official who was interviewed by The Jerusalem Post.
