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IN AFGHANISTAN, TALIBAN GAINS EXPOSE SECURITY FLAWS, MEANWHILE, PAKISTAN-INDIA CONFLICT ESCALATES

A New U.S. Front in Afghanistan?: Jessica Donati & Habib Khan Totakhil, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19, 2016— On the night of Nov. 3, U.S. and Afghan Special Forces in helicopters landed in a village on the outskirts of Kunduz, Afghanistan, hoping to kill or capture local Taliban leaders planning another major attack on the city, the capital of Kunduz province in the country’s north.

Acting President of Afghanistan Lays ‘Barbaric’ Beating on Political Rival and Takes Him Captive: Mujib Mashal & Fahim Abed, New York Times, Nov. 28, 2016— As heavy snow fell on the muddy arena in northern Afghanistan on Friday where a traditional game of buzkashi — two teams of horsemen fighting for a dead goat — was underway, a scuffle broke out near the stands.

India-Pakistan ‘Tinderbox’ to Test Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy: Siddhant Mohan, Washington Times, Nov. 20, 2016 — Aiina Shah lost her brother to the latest surge of violence to engulf Kashmir, the India-controlled province that is also claimed by Pakistan.

Hostile Nations Are Taking Advantage of Obama’s Final Days: Benny Avni, New York Post, Oct. 23, 2016 — Why would an Iranian proxy in Yemen provoke a fight with America?

 

On Topic Links

 

Obama Leaves Office With Strong Taliban, Crumbling Afghan Gov’t: Saagar Enjeti, Daily Caller, Nov. 16, 2016

Why Military Force Matters: Jeff Bergner, Weekly Standard, Oct. 13, 216

Pakistan Names New Military Leader: Salman Masood, New York Times, Nov. 26, 2016

Leaders of the Taliban May Have Moved to Afghanistan from Pakistan: Fox News, Nov. 26, 2016

 

A NEW U.S. FRONT IN AFGHANISTAN?    

Jessica Donati & Habib Khan Totakhil                                                              

Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19, 2016

 

On the night of Nov. 3, U.S. and Afghan Special Forces in helicopters landed in a village on the outskirts of Kunduz, Afghanistan, hoping to kill or capture local Taliban leaders planning another major attack on the city, the capital of Kunduz province in the country’s north. Instead, the militants led them into a trap. An hourslong battle erupted. By the time it was over, two U.S. and three Afghan soldiers had been killed, nine had been wounded, and some 30 civilians lay dead in the rubble.

 

U.S.-trained Afghan commandos and U.S. Special Forces are bearing the brunt of efforts to prevent the Taliban from seizing major cities such as Kunduz. They face an increasingly dangerous foe that is threatening to overrun a substantial part of the country. As many as six of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces are in danger of falling to the militants, according to Afghan and coalition officials. At least three provinces—Kunduz, Helmand and Farah—would probably have been lost already had it not been for the deployment of U.S. Special Forces to their capitals to support Afghan commandos with additional firepower and airstrikes, coalition officials say.

 

As a result, the U.S. is expected to face an unappealing choice: either escalate its involvement in the Afghan conflict—by sending in more troops or increasing the tempo of airstrikes and Special Forces operations—or risk allowing the Taliban to capture several Afghan provinces next year. The coalition raid in early November came just one month after the Taliban had mounted a lightning strike on Kunduz, which prompted a battle that ended 10 days later when Afghan and U.S. forces managed to drive the insurgents out.

 

The Taliban assault on the northern city was part of a campaign also involving other provinces. The offensive has opened several new fronts in the war, exposed weaknesses in the Afghan government’s security operations and highlighted the growing dependence of Afghan forces on the support of their U.S. counterparts.

 

In early October, two U.S. Special Forces teams were dispatched in rotating shifts to the governor’s compound, the symbolic headquarters of Kunduz province, to help Afghan commandos regain control of the city. When they arrived, no one was there—not even the Taliban. Provincial staff had left a message for them in English on a whiteboard, according to a U.S. soldier. It said: The Taliban are at the gates, we had to go. After Kunduz began to collapse, the Taliban broke through front lines north of Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province in Afghanistan’s south. U.S. troops stationed at a makeshift base in the city center called for airstrikes to hold the militants back.

 

As U.S. and Afghan forces were regaining control of Kunduz, the Taliban struck in the provincial capital of Farah province in the west. U.S. Special Forces were rapidly deployed to the remote western city, where they helped to coordinate at least 21 devastating airstrikes against columns of Taliban fighters. The U.S. military insists that Afghan forces are battling the Taliban to a stalemate and says that its recent operations in Afghanistan fall within the scope of the military’s mission to train and advise Afghan forces, not to fight their battles. “In the conduct of our noncombat missions, there are times where U.S. forces are in combat situations,” said Brig. Gen. Charles Cleveland, a spokesman for the coalition.

 

The Taliban’s gains signal a crumbling of state control across Afghanistan—one that the U.S. military has been hard-pressed to reverse since it withdrew most of its forces and left the Afghan government in charge of the war, alongside local forces that are often reluctant to fight. Afghan security forces have suffered some 15,000 casualties in the first eight months of the year, including more than 5,500 deaths, according to government figures. U.S. and Afghan officials say that Taliban deaths are even higher.

 

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani expressed dismay at the disarray of his forces at a recent security conference in Kabul. He added that casualty rates among the country’s special forces, which are being used to prop up the army and police, were shocking. “I want discipline. I want these complaints to be addressed,” he told Afghan and coalition officials. A spokesman for Mr. Ghani acknowledged that the Taliban had raised the pressure on major Afghan cities but said that the government’s efforts, supported by coalition forces, had prevented the insurgents from achieving their military objectives this year.

 

Afghan authorities have struggled to inspire regular police and soldiers to fight the Taliban. When the militants attacked Kunduz in the early hours of Oct. 3, they encountered scant resistance—even though many had arrived on sandaled feet, armed only with Kalashnikov rifles, city residents said. Afghan soldiers abandoned checkpoints and police stations emptied without a fight, the residents said. By afternoon, the insurgents were in Kunduz’s main square, snapping photos of one another in the deserted city streets.

 

American firepower proved crucial to driving them out. U.S. Special Forces soldiers fired on Taliban militants who had holed up around the local governor’s compound as Afghan commandos cheered in the background, according to a video shot by one of the Afghan soldiers. As Afghan commandos battled in the streets outside, U.S. drones and attack helicopters chased Taliban fighters, killing the majority of the estimated 200 Taliban militants who took part in the attack on Kunduz.                                                     

[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]         

 

Contents                                                                                                                                       

ACTING PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN LAYS ‘BARBARIC’ BEATING ON

POLITICAL RIVAL AND TAKES HIM CAPTIVE

Mujib Mashal & Fahim Abed

New York Times, Nov. 28, 2016

 

As heavy snow fell on the muddy arena in northern Afghanistan on Friday where a traditional game of buzkashi — two teams of horsemen fighting for a dead goat — was underway, a scuffle broke out near the stands. It was not just another group of hotheaded fans going at it. The man who had thrown the punch was the vice president of Afghanistan, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum. And he did not stop there: to drive the humiliation home, he put his foot on the chest of his downed victim, a political rival named Ahmad Ishchi, who was then beaten by the general’s bodyguards, thrown into the back of an armored vehicle and taken away, said several of Ishchi’s relatives, many of them speaking on the condition of anonymity out of a fear for retaliation.

 

“Dostum came there and he walked around the stadium, then he called Ahmad Ishchi over to him,” said Gulab Khan, a relative of Ishchi who was present at the game with about 5,000 other spectators. “After talking with him for a couple of minutes, he punched him and his bodyguards started beating him with AK-47s. They beat Ahmad very badly and in a barbaric way.” Dostum’s act, while not unexpected for a former warlord with a history of accusations of human rights violations and abuse (including physical acts of retaliation against allies and rivals), confirms the worst fears about someone a heartbeat from the presidency.

 

With President Ashraf Ghani traveling abroad on an official visit to Central Asia, Dostum is technically the acting president of the country. For more than two days, he has held his political rival hostage in one of his properties, with family members increasingly concerned about Ishchi’s health. On Sunday, hundreds of protesters gathered outside the vice president’s pink palace in the northern city of Sheberghan, pleading with him to free Ishchi. The protesters remained all day, but Dostum did not meet with them. His guards simply told the protesters the general was busy or resting.

 

Spokesmen and advisers to Dostum did not respond to requests for comment, despite promises from several of them. Aides who had accompanied the general to the game, and who were shown at his side in official pictures, flatly denied they had been there. Lutfullah Azizi, the governor of Jowzjan province, which includes Sheberghan, said he was away from his office on a visit to Kabul, the capital, but was trying to calm the situation. “I am aware of the dispute between General Dostum and Ahmad Ishchi; I organized the tribal elders and sent them to talk with General Dostum to release Ahmad,” Azizi said Sunday. “They are currently meeting General Dostum, and we are emphasizing Ahmad’s release tonight as he is sick.”

 

While the two men have a long history of not getting along, a senior Afghan official who also spoke on the condition of anonymity said Ishchi had shown some sign of disrespect at what is a vulnerable time for the general. He has increasingly felt marginalized and humiliated by Ghani in Kabul. He has spent more time away from his office, often seen in uniform in the battlefields of his northern stronghold, than behind his desk.

 

Ishchi has been involved in politics in the north for decades, and he helped Dostum found the Junbish party that he leads now. A former labor leader during the communist regime, he rose to serve in senior provincial government positions. One of his sons was a district governor in Jowzjan, and another is a member of the provincial council there. A third son has become rich in recent years through businesses he has in Turkey. The senior Afghan official said though Ishchi’s power amounts to little compared with Dostum’s, the general nevertheless considers the Ishchi family a threat to his own dynasty as he grooms his children to inherit his party and power.

 

The incident happened soon after Dostum returned to the country after weeks of absence following another outburst aimed at Ghani, in which he threatened to cause trouble if he was not taken seriously. The outburst was triggered by anger at the lack of help from the central government when the general’s convoy was ambushed by the Taliban during a military operation in Faryab province, killing many of the men who had been at his side for years.

 

At Friday’s game, Dostum arrived in a convoy of black armored vehicles. Before the goat was slaughtered to start the action, local musicians sang a tribute to the recent martyrs as the general wept. His trembling lips pushing out deep breaths of pain, and with snow gathering on his shoulders, he wiped his tears with a white tissue. Then, he took it out on Ishchi.                                                

Contents                                                                                                                                       

INDIA-PAKISTAN ‘TINDERBOX’ TO TEST                                                                     

DONALD TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY                                                                                     

Siddhant Mohan                                                                                                                     

Washington Times, Nov. 20, 2016

 

Aiina Shah lost her brother to the latest surge of violence to engulf Kashmir, the India-controlled province that is also claimed by Pakistan. He was blinded by pellets that the security police fired on demonstrators, she said. He died a few weeks later from wounds to the rest of his body. “He did not want to go the hospital for treatment because the police were raiding hospitals to arrest [those injured],” said Ms. Shah, a 28-year-old student from Sopore in the Baramulla district of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. “Local doctors could not help [heal] his infection.”

 

Ms. Shah’s brother was one of more than 100 people, mostly protesters, killed in demonstrations that began in July after a popular young Kashmiri militant died in a gunbattle with police. Since then, local shops have shut their doors, schools have closed and outbreaks of violence have risen steadily in protests and an escalating tit-for-tat spat between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. India and Pakistan have expelled each other’s diplomats in the past month.

 

The escalation may prove an unexpected early test for President-elect Donald Trump and his emerging foreign policy team. The issue was almost entirely overlooked during the presidential race, where the foreign policy debate focused heavily on Russia and the Middle East. Mr. Trump has established a personal rapport with the strongly pro-business Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but he also raised eyebrows across the region when he told an Indian newspaper last month that he would be honored to serve as a mediator if asked in the long-running Kashmir clash.

 

Pakistan has long pushed for international intervention in the dispute, while India has refused to accept outside mediators. Mr. Trump in the interview called Kashmir a “very, very hot tinderbox.” Pakistani officials said last week that thousands of villagers near the border in Kashmir fled a day after Indian shelling killed seven Pakistani soldiers. That was only the latest shooting across the Line of Control, which divides the Himalayan region claimed by both countries.

 

In the worst incident in September, 19 Indian soldiers were killed at their base in Kashmir. Indians said the attack was orchestrated by a militant group based in Pakistan with Pakistani help, a charge Islamabad denies. That attack was followed by an Indian strike on “militant bases” across the Pakistani border.

 

Now many believe this is the conflict that will push tensions in the region over the edge. “A proxy war between these two nations [over Kashmir] is already happening,” said Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a political and international law professor at Kashmir Central University. “And incidents in last four months have tensed the relationship even more.” He added that he expects violence to grow, especially with no resolution in sight: “[Nothing] can make us believe India or Pakistan are going to sit down together and talk on Kashmir issue.”

 

The violence is just the latest turmoil to strike the mountainous region on a border that has witnessed three wars between India and Pakistan. In between those conflicts, violence has been common throughout the Kashmir Valley in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir since India and Pakistan became independent states in 1947. Insurgents seeking to join Pakistan and achieve independence for the region rose up in an armed insurgency in the 1980s. India has suppressed those movements.

 

In recent years, however, separatists have gained support especially among disaffected Kashmiri youths. Unemployment, tensions between citizens and officials, heavy police militarization of civilian spaces and suspected human rights violations by the Indian army have pushed Kashmiri youths to take part in anti-India protests. This time, in Burhan Muzzaffar Wani, they found a leader. The 22-year-old commander of the Hizbul Mujahedeen, an Islamic militant group, had become popular through social media and was one of the more charismatic separatists. It was his killing in a July 8 shootout with security forces that triggered the latest round of violence. In this region, the group is considered heroic.

 

Thousands attended Wani’s funeral, which became the biggest protest in recent years. Demonstrators poured into the streets and hurled stones. Police responded with pellets, and hundreds were hit in the eyes, local officials say. In the subsequent months, protesters have defied curfews that have shut down streets and closed schools and businesses. Mobile phone, internet and television services have been intermittently cut off. The curfews, violence and security measures have made life harder for residents.

 

“We haven’t opened our shop since July,” said Muzamil Waseem, a businessman from Baramulla district. “We were managing to live with whatever savings we had. Our employees aren’t able to come to work, but we do pay them. That’s how people are managing their lives here.” “I stayed in Kashmir to manage my family business,” he said. “I thought it was an easy way of earning a living. But now I think my decision was wrong. We’re stuck between security forces and protesters. There is no way out now.”

 

Ghulam Hassan Pandit, 46, of the Kakpora Tal area, Wani’s hometown, said the situation is increasingly dire. “Our area is badly hit,” he said. “We are running short of food supplies, our savings are dwindling and medical services lessening. People wish to move out, but they are now framed as terrorists, so they refrain.” Hassan Beg, a businessman from Srinagar, conceded that Kashmir has always been a conflict zone but said the situation is getting worse. “This time, things turned more violent and got much attention,” said Mr. Beg. “Many innocent lives were lost. But what hurts most is that our fellow countrymen now consider us as terrorists. They do not count us as Indians. TV channels were accusing us of destabilizing the nation, but they did not bother to see that we were crushed under army boots. My son doesn’t want to go New Delhi for his higher studies,” he said. “He fears that he’d be framed as terrorist and will be lynched.”…

[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]          

 

Contents          

             

HOSTILE NATIONS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF OBAMA’S FINAL DAYS                                                                   

Benny Avni                                                                                                            

New York Post, Oct. 23, 2016

 

Why would an Iranian proxy in Yemen provoke a fight with America? There was almost most universal puzzlement among several Middle Eastern diplomats I talked to in the last few days. They were trying to game out what exactly happened when US Navy ships, including the destroyer USS Mason, came under rocket fire off the coast of Yemen earlier this month. The likely culprit: a Yemeni militia known as the Houthis.

 

The Houthis denied involvement and — as is always the case in the region — speculations abound about other possible aggressors. In Washington, officials went back and forth several times, quite confidently implicating the Houthis, Iranian allies, at first — then raising doubts about their involvement and, later still, implicating them yet again. On the ground, though, the US targeted three radar posts that the Pentagon said served to home in on the Mason. That response was described by Washington officials as “measured” and “limited.” Which may answer the mystery as to why would Iranians, or their Yemeni proxies, pick a fight with America: because they can. And because soon a new US president may change all that.

 

Donald Trump often describes President Obama’s response to foreign threats as a “disaster” and has vowed to restore America’s military deterrence. So does Hillary Clinton. “We need to respond to evolving threats from states like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea,” she said in August at the American Legion in Cincinnati. “We need a military that is ready and agile so it can meet the full range of threats and operate on short notice across every domain,” she added. After eight years of retreat, that may prove a tall order.

 

Russia, for one, increasingly provokes American allies in Europe and elsewhere. Since April, Russian fighter planes have buzzed American planes and warships with barely a protest. On Friday, a Russian armada, led by the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov, provocatively sailed the English Channel. American and British ships watched. China, meanwhile, steadily turns man-made islands into naval military fortresses, transforming the South China Sea into its private lake — much to the chagrin of our allies, who’ve relied on American defense treaties for decades. Beijing also restricts commercial flights over disputed areas and constantly confronts Japanese fishermen in the East China Sea, where Tokyo has administered several territories for a long time.

 

Washington advises Pacific allies to use international arbitration to regain sovereignty back from increasingly belligerent China. But when a Hague court ruled for the Philippines recently on one such dispute, China simply ignored the verdict. This week, Manila’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte, announced his “separation” from the US and swore allegiance, instead, to China and Russia. The next president must demonstrate that there’s a new sheriff in town, starting by significantly upping military budgets

 

Then there’s North Korea. At odds with America and much of the rest of the world since the 1950s, the Hermit Kingdom is increasingly pushing the envelope, testing ballistic missiles and nuclear devices — with various degrees of success, perhaps, but certainly at an accelerated rate. These trends have been building for several years, but “the pace is accelerating and intensifying,” says John Hannah, senior councilor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Warren Christopher. America’s enemies and competitors have “tested and tested, and found that there’s not much resistance,” Hannah says. “Once deterrence begins to wear down, restoring it can, perhaps, be done by the next administration, but at higher costs. And that’s the danger.”…

[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]

 

 

On Topic Links

 

Obama Leaves Office With Strong Taliban, Crumbling Afghan Gov’t: Saagar Enjeti, Daily Caller, Nov. 16, 2016—Afghanistan’s parliament dismissed seven cabinet ministers in a single week, deepening its political crisis amid historic Taliban battlefield gains.

Why Military Force Matters: Jeff Bergner, Weekly Standard, Oct. 13, 216— An observer of this summer's party conventions would get the idea that the use of military force is almost always and everywhere wrong and ill-advised. Any reference to the use of force was drowned out at the conventions by chants of "America First" and "no more war."

Pakistan Names New Military Leader: Salman Masood, New York Times, Nov. 26, 2016—Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan on Saturday chose Lt. Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, a military commander with a solid soldierly reputation and a firm belief in civilian supremacy, to lead the country’s powerful army.

Leaders of the Taliban May Have Moved to Afghanistan from Pakistan: Fox News, Nov. 26, 2016—After operating out of Pakistan for more than a decade, the leaders of Afghanistan's Taliban movement may have moved back to their homeland to try to build on this year's gains in the war and to establish a permanent presence.

 

 

 

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