The End of Mosul Battle is the Beginning of the Battle for Iraq: Abdulla Hawez, Jerusalem Post, Nov. 13, 2016 — Two weeks after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi officially announced the much-awaited Mosul offensive…
Eyewitness Accounts From Persecuted Iraqi Christians: Lela Gilbert, Algemeiner, Nov. 15, 2016 — It is painful to recall the events of late summer 2014, when the Islamic State killed or expelled thousands of Christians from their historic homeland Iraq’s Nineveh Plains.
Why Kurdistan Is a Pillar of Hope in a Turbulent Middle East: Sasha Toperich, Huffington Post, Aug. 15, 2016 — It is known to the world that the Kurdistan region in Iraq is facing daunting problems as it combats the largest global terrorist threat, the self-proclaimed Islamic State, or ISIS.
What Happens After ISIS Falls?: Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal, Sept. 9, 2016— On July 4, 2014, a black-turbaned cleric named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took to the pulpit of the Grand Mosque in the Iraqi city of Mosul and proclaimed the founding of a new caliphate.
Iran and Turkey Jostling for Power in Iraq: Jonathan Spyer, Jerusalem Post, Nov. 5, 2016
ISIS Is Massacring Mosul Civilians as Troops Advance, U.N. Says: Nick Cumming-Bruce, New York Times, Nov. 11, 2016
Battle for Mosul Resets Ties Between Kurds and Baghdad: Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 3, 2016
Seeking Clues to ISIS Strategy in Corpses and Cellphones Left in Kirkuk: Michael R. Gordon, New York Times, Oct. 29, 2016
THE END OF MOSUL BATTLE IS THE BEGINNING
Abdulla Hawez
Jerusalem Post, Nov. 13, 2016
Two weeks after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi officially announced the much-awaited Mosul offensive, Iraqi elite Counter-Terrorism Service troops have reportedly entered the outskirts of Mosul, for the first time since the city fell to Islamic State (ISIS) in summer 2014. Mosul will be liberated, be it in weeks or months; the actual battle for the future of Iraq will then intensify.
The future of Iraq in its current form is far from certain. Despite regaining most of the territory lost to ISIS, the authority of the Iraqi government is waning as the militias, often uncontrollable, are flourishing. These militias are a state within a state as they have their own administrative body and political leadership that is tied to Iran. And they are increasingly gaining financial independence. These militias have been frequently accused of revenge killing against Sunnis and have clashed, although in limited fashion, with the Kurdish Peshmerga. Increasing reliance on these militias in the newly liberated areas, mostly Sunni areas, will further worsen the already bad relations between Baghdad and the minority Sunni community.
Furthermore, as these militias get closer to the Kurdish borders in the north, more clashes are expected with the Peshmerga. These militias have also been involved in kidnappings for ransom and identity-based killing. At times, especially when they are not on the front lines, they have been fighting each other as well. In each area, each militia is mostly controlled by a specific tribe or tribes and they have been fighting in some areas, such as Diyala and Basra.
Meanwhile Kurds in the north have been regaining most of what they consider Kurdistan. In Nineveh they are starting to dig trenches and build permanent outposts of what they call the natural borders of Kurdistan with Iraq. In Kirkuk they are in control of the city, as Peshmerga took advantage of a golden opportunity in 2014 when Iraqi security forces deserted the city. After ISIS, the issue of the contested territories will resurface as the Iraqi government will not let these territories go, if for no other reason than popular pressure.
Here the picture will get even more complicated as the minorities also want their share, particularly in Nineveh. These minorities have all completely lost trust in the Sunni Arabs who they claim betrayed them when ISIS overran their areas. Backed by the Kurds, Christians, who have their own militias, though small, want self-rule n the Nineveh Plain. Ideally, they want to join the Kurdistan region, while keeping their self-rule. Yazidis in Sinjar want to become a province within Kurdistan, again with self-rule. Meanwhile, backed by Turkey, Turkmen, especially Sunni Turkmen, will push for a region of their own in Tel Afar just east of Sinjar.
What complicates the case of Sinjar and Tal Afar further is the regional dimension, as the PKK, labeled terrorists by Turkey, have a strong presence in Sinjar. While the Shi’ite militias will have a role in Tal Afar through the Shi’ite Turkmen, backed by Iran, who make up around 40 percent of the city. Whole Shi’ite militias, known as popular mobilization forces or PMF, have been advancing in southwestern Mosul, less than 20 km. from Tel Afar. Turkey has started deploying troops to the southeastern city of Slopi, not so far from Tal Afar and Sinjar.
As Erdogan threatens to take action if the PMF enter Tal Afar or if the PKK make Sinjar “another Qandil,” Turkey’s intervention in Syria makes it a likely scenario, especially since Turkey always has a base in Bashiq, just northeast Mosul. The PMF plan, as reported by The Guardian, will be securing a route to Syria as part of Iran’s plan to build a land corridor to the Mediterranean, but that all depends on whether Turkey will intervene.
As everyone is eyeing parts of the cake in Iraq, Sunni Arabs, who have lost most, will not sit by idly. Both Shi’ites in south and central Iraq and Kurds in the north have been expanding. Sunnis consider many of these areas theirs. The Sunnis have been building their own militias, some pro-government and others pro-Turkey. With the end of the battle for Mosul, Sunnis will actively seek to build a region or regions of their own, likely hoping to include areas controlled by the Iraqi government and Shi’ite militias, or those controlled by the Kurds and other minorities as in the case of Nineveh. That makes violent confrontations more likely.
As Iraq is going through a tough economic crisis, rebuilding the liberated territories is probably the biggest challenge for the Iraqi government in terms of regaining the trust of the Sunnis. But as that will requires tens of billions of dollars, it is unlikely Iraqi government will be able to rebuild these areas. Poverty, homelessness and political isolation will likely anger Sunnis further, and thus the Iraqi government’s few remaining bridges with them will also be destroyed.
In addition to all the above, there have been other developments. Public libraries are in decline. Just days after the Mosul offensive began, the Iraqi Parliament passed a bill by majority Shi’ite bloc but backed by many Sunni lawmakers, banning sale, production or exportation of alcohol, this in a country known for its social and religious mosaic. A day after the bill passed, Mahmoud al-Hassan, a lawmaker from the majority Shi’ite bloc, called on people to kill those who fail to implement this law; days after his statement, a Christian man who owned a liquor shop was killed in the southern city of Basra. There is also increasing pressure on dress codes in the universities.
In short here is what post ISIS-Iraq is going to look like: the country will be territorially as much as politically divided into regions, not just three but probably six. Kurds solidify their gains and formalize the borders with Iraq. Militias will flourish further and civil liberties, except in Kurdistan, will decline further. Iraq will become proto-states within a state.
EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS FROM PERSECUTED IRAQI CHRISTIANS
Lela Gilbert
Algemeiner, Nov. 15, 2016
It is painful to recall the events of late summer 2014, when the Islamic State killed or expelled thousands of Christians from their historic homeland Iraq’s Nineveh Plains. Most of them fled to Erbil, Kurdistan. Later that year, I was fortunate enough to visit the displaced survivors. By then, massive efforts had begun to provide them with basic needs – food, water, blankets, winterization of shelters and medical supplies.
Most of those Christians languished in churches, abandoned buildings and tent cities. As weeks turned to months, it became clear that fragile hopes of returning to their ISIS-occupied cities, towns and villages would not soon be fulfilled. What would they do? Should these Christians wait in Kurdistan until they could safely return home? Or should they try to seek a new life in an adopted country? Some, who were driven out of their homes on more than one occasion over recent years, continue to dream of starting over in distant lands, far removed from the fears that still haunt them. Unfortunately, that remains a difficult course with many obstacles. But others yearn to return to their homes and churches in their ancestral Christian heartland. This, too, is a huge challenge. But now, at last, they are finally sensing a surge of hope.
Today a coalition of Iraqi military forces, supported by United States air power and advisors, is aggressively seeking the destruction of ISIS. Its goal is to liberate the Nineveh Plains one village and town at a time. And its No. 1 target is Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city. It isn’t an easy operation, to put it mildly. The liberation of the Christian town of Bartella is illustrative of the critical challenges that lie ahead. But a lifesaving miracle in Kirkuk proves that there is hope, even when dangers seem insurmountable. “Bartella is liberated, but not free,” Father Behnam told me during a recent FaceTime conversation. He is a Syriac Catholic priest from Bartella who is presently living in Erbil.
International media sources are widely reporting the liberation of Bartella as a positive indication of the Islamic State’s impending eviction from Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city. Videos of Bartella’s once-silenced church bells have chimed joyfully on social media across the world. Meanwhile, hopeful news reports describe the surging anticipation of Iraq’s Christians: Will they soon be able to return to their ancestral homes and churches?
The hopes are real, but the perspective from the ground is sobering. The handful of displaced Bartella residents who have managed to reenter their town, escorted by Iraqi soldiers, are apprehensive. And this includes Behnam. Large portions of Bartella are utterly trashed; ruined beyond repair. ISIS has savagely plundered innumerable private residences, demolishing them with explosives. Meanwhile, the safety of those who manage to briefly visit, like Behnam, cannot be guaranteed. ISIS may have departed, but building after building has been left booby-trapped with mines, suitcase bombs and other assorted deadly devices.
“ISIS has excellent technology,” Behnam told me. “They mined everything. Even Bibles.” Behnam learned about such tactics when he was able to visit the Orthodox Church of St. George, which was the spiritual home to a sizeable portion of Bartella’s Christian community. The church’s interior is demolished. ISIS vandalized Bibles and New Testaments from the 14th, 15th and 16th centuries. Terrorists ripped or cut them apart, used them to fuel the flames of their arson, and otherwise desecrated them.
In several Bartella churches, statuary was beheaded and crushed. Frescoes were defaced. ISIS mottos, such as “Enduring and Expanding,” were spray-painted across sanctuary walls, along with stenciled ISIS flags. But perhaps most disturbing at St. George’s was a noose, hanging ominously in the courtyard, just inside the entryway. It bears mute witness to the demise of a Christian welcome center, which was ruthlessly transformed into an execution site. Countless innocent ISIS victims were murdered there.
Meanwhile, who is 100 percent sure that ISIS has been driven entirely out of Bartella? Behnam described the oldest section of town, where enormous basements are dug beneath timeworn houses. “No one has dared to enter those underground areas, “ he told me. “And ISIS may well be hiding there.” The Los Angeles Times quoted an Iraqi soldier who was deployed in the recent battle. “’A militant comes in from one building, takes a tunnel and emerges from another several doors down. How can we clean this place up?’ he asked, the frustration in his voice evident. That’s reason enough to cast doubt on the present situation. But Iraqi Christians also face long-range challenges.
Although the troops that liberated Bartella were uniformed as Iraqi soldiers, the flags they displayed told a somewhat different story. “There were more Shia flags than Iraqi flags,” Behnam said. “Flags honoring Hussein. Or Ali. These were clearly Shia militias.” Charmaine Hedding of Shai Fund, a nonprofit relief organization working in Kurdistan, told me that the Christian community’s problems extend beyond ISIS. “Iraq’s Christians are caught in the crossfire of a dangerous power struggle,” she explained. “Their villages and towns are located in disputed territories. “The Kurds hope to annex the region,” she continued. “But Christians haven’t forgotten that the Peshmerga withdrew their forces just hours before ISIS invaded in 2014. At the same time, Baghdad’s Iraqi forces also want to assert control over that same region.”
And that’s not to mention the territory-hungry Turks. Or the Sunnis who once turned a blind eye to the Islamic State’s horrors. I asked Behnam how he’d felt when he entered Bartella a few days before. He paused. “I felt insecure,” he finally replied. “And I was so disappointed. I kept thinking, ‘What can we do?’” I asked, “So what would make it possible for Iraq’s Christians to return to their ancestral homes?” He thought for a moment, then shook his head. “It would require massive reconstruction. And very complicated security arrangements.” Clearly discouraged, he shook his head again and concluded, “And who will help us?”
Behnam’s story illustrates the enormously complex efforts necessary to fully expel ISIS terrorists and to begin reconstruction. Another story reminds us that God is an “ever-present help in time of need.” It took place in Kirkuk, Iraq – an Iraqi city that was previously thought to have been “liberated” from ISIS. Unfortunately, some ISIS fighters had remained hidden in Kirkuk after their fellow terrorists were either killed or expelled. That made it possible – when coalition forces pushed successfully ahead toward Mosul – for the terrorist group to make a sudden comeback, staging a diversionary assault on Kirkuk…[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
WHY KURDISTAN IS A PILLAR OF HOPE IN A TURBULENT MIDDLE EAST
Sasha Toperich
Huffington Post, Aug. 15, 2016
It is known to the world that the Kurdistan region in Iraq is facing daunting problems as it combats the largest global terrorist threat, the self-proclaimed Islamic State, or ISIS. The courage of the Peshmerga, the Kurdistan army that halted ISIS’ advancement two years ago, and which keeps counting victories over this vicious terrorist group, has entered world history. Add to that the fact that these brave men and women are fighting with old weapons, unlike ISIS fighters, who confiscated modern and heavy weaponry from the Iraqi army that the U.S. provided.
Fearing the threat of ISIS and political instability, investors and foreign companies left Kurdistan, which had a sizable impact on the region’s economic development. In addition, since February 2014, the Iraqi central government stopped paying its financial obligations to Kurdistan, all while more than two million refugees and internally displaced people of all ethnicities and nationalities found refuge in the Kurdistan region, fleeing ISIS.
To address these challenges, the government in Erbil has launched a set of reforms to create a more efficient administration and to diversify the economy, which is still heavily dependent on oil and gas exports. The liberation of Mosul is expected to send between 500,000 and 1,000,000 additional refugees to the Kurdistan region, and will undoubtedly have abysmal effects on its fragile economy. The international community will need to commit to long-term aid and financial assistance, which will be crucial to defeating ISIS not only militarily, but also their entire ideology.
The fear is that if basic living conditions for refugees are not created and sustained, additional resentment might develop and new terror groups could emerge. The process of finding permanent homes for refugees will be slow at best, as ISIS destroyed numerous villages and placed landmines in others. Those mines are placed within buildings, which make them almost impossible to neutralize, and are planted there with the sole reason of potentially killing more people who try to dismantle them in an effort to inhabit the villages. Just a few days ago, Peshmerga Colonel Peshkaft Zuher Khalid was killed while attempting to dismantle a mine left by ISIS in Tulaband village. He was 34 years old and left three sons and a daughter behind.
Talks about a post-ISIS future for the Mosul area are already well underway, and Masoud Barzani, the Kurdistan region president, already supported requests by Yezidis, Christians, Shabaks, Kakais, Armenians and Assyrians, for independent administration and self-rule of Nineveh province. The liberation of Mosul will be a huge leap forward for the Kurdistan region. After ISIS is repelled further from its borders, investors are expected to start coming back. Plenty are already eyeing ways to enter or re-enter projects and foreign ministers, ambassadors and other officials are meeting daily with Kurdistan government officials. And rightly so, as opportunities for cooperation are plenty.
Kurdistan, formerly known as the “breadbasket of Iraq,” has 1.5 million hectares of irrigated lands and 70 percent of the grain production in Kurdistan is organic. In addition, Kurdistan annually produces 1.6 million tons of wheat, of which it only uses 650,000 tons, leaving one million tons available for export. Yet Iraq is not buying wheat from the Kurdistan region and is importing it from Iran and Turkey. Furthermore, the region’s fruit production is also substantial. The Barwar Bella region alone (Duhok province) produces more than 28,000 tons of apples, and Halabja produces over 50,000 tons of pomegranates on an annual basis. Opportunities for U.S. businesses are plenty in the agricultural sector, where technology is needed for further growth. Now is the time to start exploring these opportunities through the union of farmers in Kurdistan and connecting to the existing agriculture private sector for exploring joint business opportunities…[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER ISIS FALLS?
Yaroslav Trofimov
Wall Street Journal, Sept. 9, 2016
On July 4, 2014, a black-turbaned cleric named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took to the pulpit of the Grand Mosque in the Iraqi city of Mosul and proclaimed the founding of a new caliphate. Already in control of eastern Syria and western Iraq, this so-called Islamic State had global ambitions, Mr. Baghdadi declared. The self-appointed caliph vowed to restore “dignity, might, rights and leadership” to his fellow Sunni Muslims everywhere.
That audacious sermon from the heart of Iraq’s second-largest city was the culmination of a jihadist blitzkrieg that had seized most of the Sunni Arab parts of Iraq in previous weeks. It was also, it turned out, the high point of Islamic State’s bid to conquer the world. Islamic State now seems likely to fall as swiftly as it rose. In the past two years, the group has gone to war with everyone from al Qaeda to Iran’s Shiite theocracy to the U.S. and Russia. It has launched attacks in the West and elsewhere—or, at any rate, claimed credit for them—with rising frequency, even as it has suffered a series of battlefield defeats and surrendered one city after another.
Islamic State has lost significant territory over the past year, and further setbacks in the year ahead may bring an end to the grand ambitions of the self-styled caliphate. It is easy to think that Islamic State is still on the march. It isn’t. Over the past year, the territory under its control—once roughly the size of the U.K.—has shrunk rapidly in both Iraq and Syria. Islamic State has lost the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra and the northern Syrian countryside bordering on Turkey. Its militants in Libya were ousted in recent weeks from their headquarters in Sirte. In coming months, the group will face a battle that it is unlikely to win for its two most important remaining centers—Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.
It may be tempting fate to ask the question, but it must be asked all the same: What happens once Islamic State falls? The future of the Middle East may well depend on who fills the void that it leaves behind both on the ground and, perhaps more important, in the imagination of jihadists around the world. As we mark the 15th anniversary this weekend of the terrorist attacks of 9/11, one likely consequence of the demise of ISIS (as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is often known) will be to revive its ideological rival, al Qaeda, which opposed Mr. Baghdadi’s ambitions from the start. Al Qaeda may yet unleash a fresh wave of terrorist attacks in the West and elsewhere—as may the remnants of Islamic State, eager to show that they still matter.
“Simply having ISIS go away doesn’t mean that the jihadist problem goes away,” said Daniel Benjamin of Dartmouth College, who served as the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator during the Obama administration. “Eliminating the caliphate will be an achievement—but more likely, it will be just the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end.” What made Islamic State unique—and, until recently, so appealing to many young, disaffected Muslims—is that it managed to create an actual state in Syria and Iraq. In Mosul last year, food prices were lower than in Baghdad and the streets were kept clean, even as the group drove out the city’s Christians and Shiites, banned women’s beauty salons, forbade men from shaving their beards and threw gay men from rooftops. Unlike Taliban-ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s, it was also a place in the heart of the Middle East to which adepts from around the world could migrate relatively easily, by way of Turkey’s porous borders…[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
Iran and Turkey Jostling for Power in Iraq: Jonathan Spyer, Jerusalem Post, Nov. 5, 2016—The most intriguing aspect of the Mosul campaign, however, has been the differing and often opposing agendas of the various components of the attacking force. These, with surprising rapidity, have now have come to the fore.
ISIS Is Massacring Mosul Civilians as Troops Advance, U.N. Says: Nick Cumming-Bruce, New York Times, Nov. 11, 2016—Islamic State militants have summarily killed scores of civilians in the Iraqi city of Mosul in recent days, sometimes using children as executioners, and have used chemical agents against Iraqi and Kurdish troops, United Nations officials said on Friday.
Battle for Mosul Resets Ties Between Kurds and Baghdad: Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 3, 2016—Residents of the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq have grown accustomed to an unusual sight as the battle for Mosul unfolded in recent weeks: columns of Iraqi armor on their roads.
Seeking Clues to ISIS Strategy in Corpses and Cellphones Left in Kirkuk: Michael R. Gordon, New York Times, Oct. 29, 2016—Eighty-four bodies of Islamic State fighters were piled high at the Kirkuk hospital morgue, as the pathologists went through the gruesome work of gathering intelligence on the group’s sudden counterattack on the city.
