BREAKING NEWS:
Five Hezbollah Members To Be Indicted In Hariri Assassination
Five high ranking Hezbollah officials are expected to be indicted in the next few days by the United Nations special tribunal investigating the assassination of Rafik Hariri, London-based Asharq Alawsat reported on Monday.
Once the indictments are released, the identities of the accused will be kept secret for a short period in order to allow the Lebanese government to investigate and arrest them, according to the report.…
Tension is currently rising in Lebanon, amid reports that the STL is to issue indictments in the very near future. The tribunal is tasked with investigating the 2005 murder of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, which took place on February 14, 2005. The indictments were originally expected to be issued by the end of 2010, but were postponed several times.
Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare’s filing of the indictment in January and expansion in March set off political crises in Lebanon, where the Shi’ite group Hezbollah and its allies toppled the government of Hariri’s son, Saad Hariri. The release of the indictments is expected to have serious ramifications in Lebanon and region-wide, even threatening to throw Lebanon into civil war. (Jerusalem Post, June 27.)
HEZBOLLAH RISE IN LEBANON GIVES SYRIA, IRAN SWAY
Zeina Karam
Huffington Post, June 13, 2011
Hezbollah and its allies [have risen] to a position of unprecedented dominance in Lebanon’s government, giving its patrons Syria and Iran greater sway in the Middle East.
Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced a new Cabinet—[Hezbollah and its allies control 18 of the 30 seats]—after the country has operated for five months without a functioning government. The move caps Hezbollah’s steady rise over decades from resistance group against Israel to Lebanon’s most powerful military and political force.…
The new government opens the door for renewed Syrian influence in Lebanon at a time the Syrian leadership is struggling at home. It’s a remarkable turnaround from 2005, when fallout from the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri led to massive anti-Syrian protests in Lebanon. The protests, dubbed the “Cedar Revolution,” drove tens of thousands of Syrian troops out of Lebanon and ended decades of Syrian domination over its smaller neighbor.
The ascendancy of Hezbollah is a setback for the United States, which has provided Lebanon with $720 million in military aid since 2006 and has tried in vain to move the country firmly into a Western sphere and end Iranian and Syrian influence. It also underscores Iran’s growing influence in the region at a time when Washington’s is falling.
U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called for an immediate cut-off of U.S. funds to the new government “as long as any violent extremist group designated by the U.S. as foreign terrorist organizations participates in it.”
“For years, members of Congress warned that it was unwise to fund a Lebanese government in which Hezbollah participated. It was clear that Hezbollah’s influence was growing, and that the executive branch had no long-term strategy to deal with that reality, and no contingency plan to stop U.S. aid from falling into the wrong hands,” the Florida Republican said in a statement.…
A Hezbollah-led government would obviously raise tensions with Israel, which fought a devastating 34-day war against the Shiite militants in 2006.… Lebanon, torn apart by decades of civil war and deep sectarian divides, has had several major military conflicts with neighboring Israel.
Hezbollah forced the collapse of Lebanon’s previous, pro-Western government in January over fears it would be indicted by a U.N.-backed tribunal investigating the killing of Hariri, a billionaire businessman and political leader who had been trying to limit Syria’s domination of Lebanon in the months before his death.… Hariri’s son, Saad, who was prime minister in January, refused to denounce the tribunal or cut off Lebanon’s 49 percent share of the funding for it. Hezbollah and its allies then walked out of the government…and secured enough support in parliament to name Mikati as the new prime minister.… Saad Hariri, who has described Mikati’s nomination as a coup, vowed not to be part of the new government. His Western-backed coalition is now the opposition in Lebanon.
Once seen solely as Iran’s militant arm in Lebanon, Hezbollah has reinvented itself as a more conventional political movement. It has joined the government and become involved in domestic politics, but fighting Israel remains the group’s priority.
WITH ALLIES LIKE THESE,
BEIRUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RULE ITSELF
Michael Young
Al Arabiya News, June 16, 2011
Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad may be struggling with problems at home, but he still has pull in Beirut. Lebanon’s prime minister designate, Najib Miqati, finally formed a government after a five-month delay. Syria’s fingerprints were all over it.…
What is it that suddenly altered the mood in Damascus? After all, the Syrian leadership had not previously applied pressure on Mr Miqati and its friends in Beirut, strongly suggesting that it welcomed a Lebanese vacuum. One can only speculate, but the widening revolt in Syria and the regime’s growing regional and international isolation, particularly its divorce from states such as Turkey and Qatar, were surely factors. With so much shifting around Mr. Al Assad and his acolytes, they apparently concluded that it was preferable to employ Lebanon as a tool in their confrontation with the outside, by forming a favorable government, rather than exploiting the void in the country.
This does not bode well. Mr. Miqati insisted that his cabinet would represent all Lebanese, a reminder that the March 14 coalition led by the caretaker prime minister, Saad Hariri, has refused to join.… Aside from Syria, those bolstering the new team are Hezbollah and Michel Aoun, whose hostility to March 14 is profound. Mr. Miqati and his “centrist” allies in the government—Mr. Suleiman and Mr. Jumblatt—will labor to ensure that their partners do not settle political scores.
Mr Berri’s decision, and more important that of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary general, to accept a smaller Shiite share of ministers was not fortuitous. It facilitated Mr. Miqati’s task, therefore aiding President Assad’s regime. The lower Shiite profile also was destined to achieve two other objectives: it allows Mr. Miqati to say that his government is not controlled by Hezbollah, lending it Sunni legitimacy inside Lebanon while also reassuring Arab states and the international community. And, more perniciously, it places the onus of failure on the prime minister, even if Hezbollah knows that it will have great sway over cabinet decisions despite having few ministers.
Hezbollah has two priorities. The party wants a clear policy statement by the government officially sanctioning its weapons; and it wants the state to take its distance from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon dealing with the assassination in 2005 of Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister. The tribunal is expected to issue an indictment within three months, and there have been indications that Hezbollah members will be accused of involvement.…
However, Hezbollah also has a more overarching ambition. The party anxiously realizes that Syria’s regime is facing an existential threat, and that its collapse would transform power relations in the Levant to Iran’s detriment, and therefore its own. It has no ready solution to this predicament, but Hezbollah will strive more than ever to anchor itself in the institutions of the Lebanese state, and to dominate them and marginalize its political adversaries in order to resist potentially disadvantageous change. That is why Mr. Miqati’s government will hit turbulence, especially over whatever affects Hezbollah’s future.
The prime minister can already anticipate three major headaches. The first is that Hezbollah will push for the government not to cooperate with the special tribunal. It’s difficult to see how Mr. Miqati, against the wishes of Syria, Hezbollah and Mr Aoun, will be able to resist this demand, despite his worries that it could place Lebanon on a collision course with the United Nations Security Council, which established the institution. Even Mr Jumblatt has little room to maneuver on the tribunal, having repeatedly denounced it as a “politicized” body.
Mr. Miqati was also obliged to accept an appointee of Suleiman Franjieh, a prominent Syrian ally, as defense minister. This will further discredit the Lebanese army in the eyes of the United States and many in the international community. American military assistance will almost certainly dry up. Equally worrisome is that several countries participating in the UN force in southern Lebanon believe the army to be under the influence of Hezbollah. This impression, not altogether unjustified, could well determine their continued commitment to maintaining troops in Lebanon, when some contingents have already expressed an intention to leave.
A third problem for Mr. Miqati will be internal political discord. The foes of March 14 today have wide latitude to dismantle the political, security and financial edifice the coalition put in place after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005. While Mr. Miqati will try to limit the damages, such measures will provoke a backlash from March 14, particularly the partisans of Mr Hariri, the dominant Lebanese Sunni figure. These conflicts, at a time of crisis in Syria and volatility in the region, could destabilize Lebanon in dangerous ways.
That’s not to mention the myriad other challenges Mr. Miqati will wrestle with—above all a potentially serious decline in economic confidence and the strains following from the state’s support for the Assad regime, when most Lebanese Sunnis sympathize with the Syrian opposition. Lebanon’s new government may mean the country is out of the frying pan, but nothing suggests it will avoid the fire.
HEZBOLLAH MAY FIGHT ISRAEL TO RELIEVE SYRIA
Editorial
Reuters, June 22, 2011
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group is preparing for a possible war with Israel to relieve perceived Western pressure to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, its guardian ally, sources close to the movement say. The radical Shi’ite group, which has a powerful militia armed by Damascus and Iran, is watching the unrest in neighboring Syria with alarm and is determined to prevent the West from exploiting popular protests to bring down Assad.…
Officials say [Hezbollah] will not stand idly by as international pressure mounts on Assad to yield to protesters. It is committed to do whatever it takes politically to help deflect what it sees as a foreign campaign against Damascus,…readying for a possible war with Israel if Assad is weakened.…
“When [Hezbollah] sees the West gearing up to bring [Assad] down, it will not just watch,” a Lebanese official close to the group’s thinking [recently said]. “This is a battle for existence for the group and it is time to return the favor (of Syria’s support). It will do that by fending off some of the international pressure,” he added.
The militant group, established nearly 30 years ago to confront Israel’s occupation of south Lebanon, fought an inconclusive 34-day war with Israel in 2006.… Hezbollah believes the West is working to reshape the Middle East by replacing Assad with a ruler friendly to Israel and hostile to itself. “The region now is at war, a war between what is good and what is backed by Washington.… Syria is the good,” said a Lebanon-based Arab official close to Syria.…
Hezbollah inflicted serious damage and casualties by firing missiles deep into Israel during the 2006 conflict, and was able to sustain weeks of rocket attacks despite a major Israeli military incursion into Lebanon. Western intelligence sources say the movement’s arsenal has been more than replenished since the fighting ended, with European-led UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon powerless to prevent supplies entering mostly from Syria.
Syria, which borders Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Jordan, has regional influence because of its alliance with Iran and its continued role in Lebanon, despite ending a 29-year military presence there in 2005. It also has an influence in Iraq. “If the situation in Syria collapses it will have repercussions that will go beyond Syria,” the Arab official said. “None of Syria’s allies would accept the fall of Syria even if it led to turning the table upside down—war (with Israel) could be one of the options.” The Lebanese official said: “All options are open including opening the fronts in Golan (Heights) and in south Lebanon.…”
JIHADI MISSILE CRISIS
Frank Crimi
FrontPage, June 15, 2011
[U.S.] Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently claimed that Hezbollah possessed chemical and biological weapons. The news comes as the IDF contends the terror organization has now amassed more than 50,000 missiles and rockets, heightening Israel’s concerns over its vulnerability to a Hezbollah assault.
The assertion by Gates followed reports in April 2011 that Libyan rebels had ransacked chemical weapons storage depots in and around the Libyan city of Benghazi. There they obtained at least 2,000 artillery shells carrying mustard gas and 1,200 nerve gas shells, which they sold to both Hezbollah and Hamas.
Not surprisingly, Iran was believed to be the broker of the deal. Of course, Iran has long been accused of supplying Hezbollah with chemical weapons, the last time in 2009 when chemical traces were discovered in a Hezbollah weapons warehouse.
Although Hezbollah denies having chemically-armed missiles or rockets, it doesn’t deny their importance to the terror organization. According to Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, “These are our pride and dignity…no one will be able to grab them, neither in Lebanon nor in the world.”
Unfortunately for Israelis, Hezbollah’s precious stockpile has now surpassed over 50,000 missiles and rockets according to the IDF. The IDF has also determined the number of pre-designated targets of Hezbollah launch sites to have grown from around 200 in 2006 to now somewhere in the thousands.
In fact, in April 2011 Israeli officials had already identified 550 underground bunkers, 300 surveillance sites and 100 other facilities south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon, the zone where Hezbollah is supposedly banned from keeping weapons under the UN-sponsored truce that ended the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah war.
The entire situation has added to growing Israeli concern over its increasing vulnerability from Hezbollah’s already enormous and growing stockpile of weaponry, which according to former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Arens can now “reach every corner of Israel and threaten its entire civilian population.”
Even though Israel has a newly deployed Iron Dome anti-missile system, that system remains vulnerable to massive salvos fired from Hezbollah’s short-range missile systems. For example, during the 34-day war in 2006, Hezbollah unleashed nearly 4,000 missiles and rockets—around 120 a day—into northern Israel. However, 2009 Wikileaks documents reveal Israel expects a new war with Hezbollah to last two months, with 500 missiles a day, including 100 that would reach Tel Aviv. More worrisome is that Israel’s Home Front Command admitted in April 2011 that only 31 percent of Israel’s 7 million people had been supplied gas masks.
Added into this troubling equation are reports surfacing of Hezbollah busily moving weapons from the chaos in Syria and distributing them immediately to its forces so they don’t fall into the wrong hands.
Yet, despite the presence of a 12,000 man UN truce keeping force (UNIFIL) and 15,000 Lebanese soldiers (LAF), both forces have been unable to prevent Hezbollah from stockpiling weapons in southern Lebanon. To that end, Israel has been seeking to have the UN enforce a much tougher mandate than what is currently in place.
As it stands now, most of Hezbollah’s weapons are held in populated civilian areas but UNIFIL forces can’t enter those villages and towns unless it is coordinated with the Lebanese Army. However, more often than not, the LAF tips off Hezbollah prior to such a move.…
Hezbollah is taking advantage of Lebanon’s current political vacuum to stir up trouble along the UN-mapped frontier with Israel. The most recent outbreak of violence there came in May when Hezbollah and Syrian-backed protesters stormed the Israeli border but were fired upon by Lebanese troops, killing 10 people in the process. However, a similar such scheduled protest on Naksa Day—the 44th anniversary of the Six Day War—was averted when Hezbollah called it off after Israel had issued a not-so-veiled warning that those behind the protests “would be held accountable.”
Still, despite Hezbollah’s apparent cold feet, it has long been itching for a fight with Israel, most fervently since the assassination in 2008 of Hezbollah’s chief of military operations Imad Mughniyeh. In April 2011, Israelis were already being warned of Hezbollah attacks against Israeli overseas targets. The preference of Hezbollah according to Israeli intelligence officials was to bomb an overseas target like an Israeli embassy or consulate rather than the Lebanese border region so it would give Hezbollah more deniability. Fortunately, those anticipated attacks never materialized.
Yet while those overseas attempts by Hezbollah may have been foiled, it’s only a matter of time before it targets its deadly arsenal on Israel itself. While Syria and Iran are actively engaging in acts of provocation with Israel, their terrorist proxy organization Hezbollah would be the most likely to lead an actual assault.
It’s certainly a role Hezbollah doesn’t shy from. According to Nasrallah, “Negotiations (with Israel) are the crazy and futile options that don’t achieve any results.” Even the Israelis know what’s coming. As Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said about the current truce with Hezbollah, “This is not forever.… You need to be ready for every test.”
The contents of that test were chillingly presented by Nasrallah when he said, “The Jews love life, so that is what we shall take away from them. We are going to win, because they love life and we love death.” Unfortunately for Israelis, Hezbollah’s love of death may soon come in the form of a barrage of missiles and rockets.
