A FRAGILE TRUCE
Editorial
Jerusalem Post, March 13, 2012
After four days of conflict, the present round of clashes with terrorist organizations in Gaza appears to have come to an end. Most parties had a vested interest in avoiding an escalation.
Israel’s objectives were limited to containment of the fallout resulting from the targeted killing of Zuhair Qaisi, head of the Popular Resistance Committees in the Gaza Strip. Qaisi was viewed as a “ticking bomb” who was preparing an attack from the lawless Sinai similar to the one he engineered last August.
The aims of the PRC, Islamic Jihad and other “muqawama” or “rejectionist” terrorist organizations heavily funded and backed by Iran have been and remain kidnapping and/or murdering Israelis and drawing Israel into direct conflict with post-Mubarak Egypt. And it was precisely these aims that Israel wanted to foil by killing Qaisi.
However, Israel had no interest in a major escalation that could result in many unintentional civilian casualties in Gaza, especially considering the Palestinians’ policy of firing rockets from population centers and using civilians as human shields. And though the three Iron Dome rocket-defense batteries stationed in Ashdod, Ashkelon and Beersheba provided important protection to tens of thousands living within rocket range of Gaza, prolonging the conflict would have increased the risk of Israeli casualties.
Hamas, which holds the most control in Gaza, also had no interest in escalation, although this could change down the road. The terrorist organization is in flux, moving away from its old alliances with Iran and Syria and trying to align itself with Sunni states, particularly Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’s mother organization, is rising to power. Hamas has a vested interest in showing Egypt and other “moderate” Sunni states that it is capable of maintaining stability in Gaza.
This is particularly true considering the fact that Egypt, which has undergone tremendous political turmoil since Hosni Mubarak’s ouster, has troubles of its own—particularly tensions between the military junta and the Islamists.… Indeed, Egypt played a key role in facilitating the present cease-fire. Intelligence chief Murad Muafi and other Egyptian military figures provided vital liaison between Israel and the terrorist groups in Gaza.…
But the cease-fire is fragile. On Tuesday morning, several mortar shells were fired at southern Israel from Gaza. And the PRC and Islamic Jihad, which have demonstrated that they have many rockets, will continue to plan attacks against the “Zionist entity.” [on Thursday, a Grad rocket launched in Gaza was intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system; a shorter-range Kassam rocket exploded near the town of Netivot. No casualties were reported in the attacks—Ed.]
More disturbing is the very real possibility that the political interest of Hamas and Egypt to maintain calm in Gaza could change. Egypt’s increasing radicalism in the post-Mubarak era was evidenced on Sunday when the Egyptian parliament, now practically controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, moved toward a vote to halt the reception of more than $1 billion in US aid each year.… On Monday, the Egyptian parliament voted to expel Israel’s ambassador and halt gas exports to Israel. The vote was taken in a show of hands on a declaration by the Arab Affairs Committee that Egypt would never be a friend, partner or ally of Israel.
Reducing American aid is seen as an attempt to block US influence over Egyptian policies. This might give Egypt a freer hand in the coming years to abrogate the Camp David Accords and adopt a more antagonistic position vis-à-vis Israel. Unfortunately, as the fragile cease-fire takes effect and over a million Israelis in the South begin to return to normal life, there are already signs of the next round of clashes on the horizon.
BROTHERHOOD MAKES ITS MOVE IN EGYPT
Rick Moran
FrontPage, March 13, 2012
The majority Islamist Egyptian parliament moved on several fronts in the past few days to flex its muscles and challenge the authority of the military-appointed government. The Muslim Brothers, represented by the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), and their Salafi allies, who make up 70% of the members in parliament, have decided to engineer a “no confidence” vote in the government of Prime Minister Kamal Al Ganzouri, force the withdrawal of the Israeli ambassador from Cairo, and will vote to refuse $1 billion in aid from the US government. These actions, which took place on the eve of the first day of candidate registration for the presidential elections, threaten to instigate a political crisis in the country—as well as with the United States and Israel.
The Islamists are making a move to challenge the military because of two recent incidents that have angered the Egyptian people and made the government even more unpopular than it was previously.
The first incident occurred on February 1 when a huge riot broke out following a soccer game in Port Said. Authorities said that 79 people died and hundreds were injured when fans of the home team swarmed the field after a rare win, attacking opposing fans and players, and overwhelming the small number of riot police who were deployed for the game. The next day, riots broke out in Cairo and elsewhere that killed two and injured more than 900. The people blame the military for the pitifully inadequate security at the stadium. Most of the dead died of asphyxiation when people trying to exit the melee were blocked by a locked gate. There were also questions about how fans had been able to bring knives and other weapons into the stadium.
The second incident that has angered parliament and the Egyptian people was the lifting of the travel ban on the 16 Americans who are on trial for illegal funding of the NGOs they worked for. Parliament believes that the government caved in to American pressure and threats from Congress to deny Egypt the $1.3 billion in aid the US gives to Egypt every year. It was this incident that precipitated the confrontation in parliament with the military government and presages political turmoil.…
The lifting of the travel ban especially seems to have outraged the citizens of Egypt due to interference in the judicial process by the military, as the original judge in the case has alleged. This initiated an intense questioning of ministers in parliament, as lawmaker after lawmaker called for a vote of no confidence. “I wish members of the U.S. Congress could listen to you now to realize that this is the parliament of the revolution, which does not allow a breach of the nation’s sovereignty or interference in its affairs,” said the parliament’s speaker, FJP member Saad el-Katatni.…
The no confidence vote is a process that should take about two weeks…but it is unclear that, even if the parliament is successful, there will be any changes to the government. The military has sole authority to name the prime minister and his cabinet, which means that even if they are voted out, the military could appoint the same people.
One observer of Egyptian politics, Mazen Hassan, a political science professor at Cairo University, said, “It [the no confidence motion] has the perfect bits and pieces by which [parliament] can gain popularity.” Indeed, the parliament voted two other measures that promised to be very popular.…
Both measures are largely symbolic, but represent an ominous sign of things to come. First, the parliament, by a show of hands, accepted a report by the Arab Committee that called for the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador, the recall of the Egyptian ambassador from Israel, and a halt to the sales of natural gas to the Jewish state. The Islamists also introduced a measure that would cut the $1.3 billion in aid from the US to Egypt. Both issues are a challenge to the military government, which has reserved the power to make such decisions. But the popular sentiment expressed in both resolutions will strengthen the hand of the Brotherhood going into the presidential elections. It may also get the military to compromise on the make-up of the government, putting some Islamist ministers in power if the no confidence vote is successful.
The report from the Arab Committee is an interesting document for those who still believe that the Muslim Brotherhood can be trusted.… [It asks] the military to “review all relations and agreements” with Israel, which is described as Egypt and the Arab world’s “number one enemy.” “Revolutionary Egypt will never be a friend, partner or ally of the Zionist entity [Israel], which we consider to be the number one enemy of Egypt and the Arab nation,” says the report. That seems clear enough for anyone.… The report also endorses the Palestinian resistance “in all its kinds and forms” against Israel’s “aggressive policies.” Presumably, this means supporting the blowing up of civilians in terrorist attacks and launching rocket barrages into towns and cities.…
As with the vote on Israel, the measure introduced to refuse US aid is not really in the purview of parliament to consider—at this point in time. Once a president is elected, parliament will write a new constitution where it is expected that the power of the president (and the military council that backs him) will be reduced and the power of the legislature increased. The Brotherhood may very well take such decisions about Israel and the US out of the hands of the president and write them into parliament’s powers. Obviously, regional stability will ride on the outcome of that tug-of-war.…
These moves by the Islamists in parliament are the opening gambit in what promises to be a tense jockeying for power and influence in the Egyptian government over the next several months.… Much will depend on how the military sees the future of Egypt and whether it would be amenable to giving up some of its influence in order to achieve a peaceful, stable society. No one is betting on that outcome. Nor is anyone wagering that the Muslim Brotherhood will moderate its views toward Israel or the US.
EGYPT UNEASY IN DEALINGS WITH ISRAEL
Zvi Mazel
Jerusalem Post, March 14, 2012
Egyptian policy regarding Israel these days is a troubling indication of the instability in the country. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is on a collision course with the new political forces and particularly the Muslim Brothers.
On the one hand Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi did approve last week the appointment of a new ambassador to Israel, but on the other the lower house of the newly elected parliament adopted a declaration stating that Israel was the No. 1 enemy of Egypt.…
At the same time, it is due to Egypt’s strenuous efforts that the present round of hostilities between Israel and Gaza was brought to an end. Without these efforts it is doubtful that the flare-up could have been halted without an IDF ground operation from Israel which could have ignited the whole region. The Supreme Council thus demonstrated its pragmatism and the fact that it is well aware of the importance of the relations with Israel—and with the United States.…
As for the Muslim Brothers, their electoral successes have not been followed by a new awareness of political reality. The rhetoric of their leaders against Israel has not been dampened, and their tirades have whipped the crowds into a frenzy, leading to the shameful attack on the Israeli Embassy in September and perhaps to the repeated assaults on the pipeline—13 so far—bringing Egyptian gas to Jordan and to Israel. Stopping the flow has already cost Egypt more than a billion dollars in lost revenues.
The lower house of the Egyptian parliament is powerless to implement its demands regarding the ambassador or the gas, since it has no executive powers.… However, it is a clear indication of what the Muslim Brothers have in mind and what they will try to do when they form the next government at some point after a president is elected in June.…
There are some steep hurdles before the end of this transition period. First, a special committee of 100 people must be appointed to draft the new constitution. Then the constitution must be approved by referendum. Only then are presidential elections to be held, it is hoped with the first round taking place on May 23-24. Should no candidate get 50 percent of the vote, a second round will be held. Final results are expected by mid-June; coincidentally, the verdict in the Mubarak trial is due at the same time.…
The character of the new constitution and president will both have far reaching implications for the nature of relations with Israel. True, Israel and Egypt have common security interests and the dialogue between the relevant services are ongoing, but would a government led by the Brotherhood put a stop to these vital exchanges? What about trade relations, and the sale of natural gas to Israel? What about the existence of Qualified Industrial Zones, which in cooperation with Israel let Egypt export its products—and especially cotton—to the United States without having to pay import duties? Should the agreements be revoked, the entire Egyptian textile industry would be at risk of collapse.
Then there are Sinai, Hamas—which is the Gaza branch of the Muslim Brotherhood—and last but not least, Iran, long seen as an enemy by Hosni Mubarak but which is now trying to ingratiate itself with the new regime. So many questions…and so few answers.
(Zvi Mazel, a Fellow of The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs,
is a former Israeli ambassador to Romania, Egypt and Sweden.)
EGYPT IS A VOLCANO, THE WEST SNOOZES,
BUT ISRAEL WON’T PLAY THE ROLE OF POMPEII
Barry Rubin
Pajamas Media, March 15, 2012
Reality: Those who are, or will soon be, governing Egypt view themselves as being at war with Israel for all practical purposes. It matters relatively little that there is still a peace treaty. In Cairo, there are no thoughts of peace.… The same applies to the Egyptian government’s attitude to the United States.… It is a disaster that U.S. policymakers and journalists have not even begun to recognize, much less counter.…
Here’s the latest example. The Egyptian parliament voted unanimously to demand the expulsion of Israel’s ambassador and the halt of all natural gas exports to Israel. Isn’t going to happen? Well, not this month. Of course, the military junta is still in control, but it won’t be by the end of June. And then the deluge begins.
The mechanics of this step are especially significant. The parliament’s Arab affairs committee issued a report that stated: “…the Zionist entity (Israel)…[is] the number one enemy of Egypt and the Arab nation.…” It’s rather difficult to be at peace with your “number one enemy” isn’t it.… And in this report and successful resolution, Israel is referred to as an “entity” and not a state thirty years after the two countries made peace and “ended” their conflict. That’s the same term used by Iran, Hamas, and Hizballah. And the report calls for a total boycott of Israel, which would mean that even if there would be an Israeli embassy in Cairo no Egyptian official would meet with its personnel.…
In a sense, then, this is a declaration of war. Oh, it isn’t a formal war with the Egyptian military building up its forces in eastern Sinai or launching a cross-border attack. But war nonetheless.…
And there’s something else here that shouldn’t be taken for granted. The vote was unanimous. There is not a single Egyptian in parliament that would dare say, “Wait a minute! Is this wise? Is this accurate? Didn’t we get back the Sinai as a result of peace, which means the reopening of the Suez Canal and the operation of our oilfields there? Aren’t we in danger of sliding into a disastrous war? Haven’t we been down this path before? Don’t we want to avoid foreign adventures and focus on dealing with our social problems and economy? Shouldn’t we try to maintain a good relationship with the United States?”
Nobody, or close to nobody, will say such things, even the few who dare think them will not dare speak them. This is how the hysteria and demagoguery build into war, bloodshed, and catastrophe.…
And the West doesn’t have a clue that there is a volcano steaming away, throwing rocks into the air, rumbling, and getting ready to blow. When I talk to Western diplomats and journalists they keep saying something like: But it doesn’t make sense for Egypt to become a radical state eager for a confrontation with Israel. It isn’t in their interests given all the country’s internal and economic problems.
The Western governments, media, and “experts” are still pretending that good old material interest will solve everything and keep everyone moderate.… The opposite is true. Since the new rulers cannot solve or even reduce those things, extremism is precisely the answer to their political problems. Whip up hysteria, ensure mass support, and get people to forget or ignore their “real” problems. There is an Arab expression often used as the battle cry of this method: Let no voice rise above the din of battle. Or, to put it another way, Shut up! We’re busy trying to kill Jews here!…
