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SYRIA ON THE BRINK: ASSAD DENIES RESPONSIBILITY, AS THE “INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY” DITHERS

In an interview this week with journalist Barbara Walters, Syrian president Bashar Assad denied ordering the killing of anti-regime protesters, claiming that rogue “individuals” were to blame for the bloodshed. According to Assad, “I did my best to protect the people. I cannot feel guilty when you do your best.”

 

Despite Assad’s ongoing defiance, Syria reportedly agreed this week to allow Arab League observers into the country as part of a plan to end the carnage. However, it has since emerged that the regime placed a number of conditions, including the cancellation of embarrassing economic sanctions by the 22-member organization. Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby swiftly rebuffed Damascus’ demands, and the Syrian opposition accused Assad of stalling and attempting to trick Arab leaders into reversing their punitive measures.

 

Syria has already failed to meet several ultimatums to end the crackdown, which the UN says has killed more than 4,000 people. Yet despite tightening sanctions by Arab and other nations, the “international community” has so far failed to halt Assad’s murderous onslaught.

 

SYRIA, UNDER SIEGE INSIDE AND OUT, DOES NOT BUDGE
Neil Macfarquhar
NY Times, December 7, 2011

During his most recent news conference, [Syrian] Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem interrupted the flow of questions by waving a small white piece of paper indicating that he had important news. “I just received a note from the committee advising on the new constitution!” said the portly, white-haired minister, announcing only that one new provision bans “discrimination between political parties.”

Such creaky political theater spoke volumes about the way President Bashar al-Assad’s government has been handling the crisis engulfing Syria since March. Rather than responding to the motivations and demands behind the antigovernment uprising…the government has stubbornly clung to the narrative that it is besieged by a foreign plot. The government offers meager crumbs of political change…avoiding the sweeping reforms that might defuse public anger and ease its international isolation.…

Senior government officials—including Mr. Assad—and their supporters reel off a strikingly uniform explanation for the uprisings, blaming foreign agents and denying official responsibility for the violence. “Most of the people that have been killed are supporters of the government, not the vice versa,” Mr. Assad said in an interview with ABC News broadcast on Wednesday. In the interview, Mr. Assad denied ordering a crackdown. “We don’t kill our people,” he said.…

Virtually no one in the Syrian government links the uprisings…to a public fed up with the status quo. Instead, they say the United States and Israel, allied with certain quisling Arab governments, are plotting to destroy Syria…and to weaken its regional ally, Iran. To achieve this aim, they are arming and financing Muslim fundamentalist mercenaries who enter Syria from abroad, Syrian officials say.…

But that view does not seem to explain events unfolding on the streets. The seemingly routine flow of life in central Damascus could leave the impression that there is no crisis, or that the security approach is effective. Yet beneath the mundane, unease grips the capital as fear of civil war supplants hopes for a peaceful transition to democracy.…

THE ARAB LEAGUE’S SELF-SERVING SANCTIONS
Shadi Bushra

Huffington Post, December 7, 2011

Over the past months, the Arab League has incrementally stepped up pressure on Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, culminating in the imposition of diplomatic and economic sanctions. Since then, the League has been showered with admiration from Western governments, media outlets, and political analysts for stepping up to protect Syrian civilians and their democratic aspirations.…

The Arab League’s “activism” comes amid widespread exasperation with Damascus. The West, once warily optimistic about the younger Assad’s prospects as a reformer, has intensified pressure with ever stiffening sanctions from the United States, Canada, and the European Union, Syria’s largest trading partner. France has even hinted at using militaries to establish “humanitarian corridors” for civilians inside Syria, a sentiment echoed by Turkey. Assad’s numerous broken promises to his erstwhile friend Prime Minister Recep Erdogan soured the gradually improving relationship between historical enemies.…

It is against this backdrop…that the Arab League was forced to act. Once the dominant members of the League calculated that, sooner or later, Assad would fall, they opted to act on the side of the opposition. But that does not mean that they did so out of concern for the Syrian people. Rather, the League acted out of concern for its image and its influence.

The Arab League has long been described as a “club of dictators.…” With that in mind, some governments have decided that promoting democratic values in other countries is a decent enough foil for criticism that they repress such ambitions at home. Qatar, for example, does not allow political parties or a national legislature but trained and armed the Libyan rebels, and led the push for Syrian sanctions. Support for political inclusion is no longer an ideal, but rather a weapon to wield against one’s rivals and a shield against scrutiny.…

Perhaps the greatest factor in motivating the Arab League to act was the fear of being outmaneuvered by the rising regional powers, Turkey and Iran. Syria’s importance—as a transit corridor, a trading partner, a military power…and a key to stability in Lebanon and Iraq—is difficult to overstate. The two non-Arab powers are staking their own positions in the conflict, with Turkey strongly pushing Assad to either reform or leave, and Iran hedging its bets by maintaining ties to the opposition and the regime. The Arab powers are particularly keen to hurt Iran by ensuring a Sunni government comes to power in Sunni-majority Syria. Were the Arab League to simply sit on the sidelines, it would give either Iran or Turkey a dominant position in a post-Assad region.

All of this does not amount to a condemnation of the sanctions’ substance, but rather of the motives behind them.… Sanctioning Assad was not a humanitarian decision, but one motivated by calculated self-interest on the part of Arab governments.

TO CONFRONT SYRIAN BARBARISM,
DECRY RUSSIAN, CHINESE INDIFFERENCE
Mark Salter

Real Clear Politics, December 1, 2011

Following the release of a UN report accusing the Syrian government of crimes against humanity…the government organized another spontaneous demonstration of loyalty to the loathsome regime of Bashar Assad. The throng of professed pro-regime Syrians that filled a Damascus square Monday carried giant images of their benighted leader, chanted professions of love for the unlovable tyrant, and waved the colors of Assad’s most important international patrons, Russia and China.

And well they should, for it is those two bastions of friendship and support for the world’s worst tyrannies that steadfastly prevent the UN Security Council from acting meaningfully in support of the emerging international consensus that the Syrian government’s remorseless determination to commit any atrocity in order to hold on to power has necessitated its removal.

Even in an age with enough examples of barbarism to depress the staunchest believer in the moral perfectibility of the human race, the UN investigation that sparked the latest sanctions against Syria is a shock to our consciences. Included in its catalogue of horrors are the detention, torture, rape and murder of children, including the deliberate killing of a 2-year-old girl. It is a damning indictment of an eight-month campaign of depraved cruelty toward peaceful protesters and innocent victims.…

Yet none of the crimes has disturbed the indifference to evil that is casually part of the calculus in Moscow and Beijing. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected calls by the U.S., EU, Arab League and others for the Security Council to impose an arms embargo against Syria, and warned the world to stop threatening Assad. As speculation increased about an international humanitarian intervention in Syria, Russia announced it was deploying warships to its naval base there.

The Chinese response was a little less obtuse, and avoided a fulsome defense of Syria. China called for dialogue rather than confrontation with Damascus, and abstained from supporting a UN Human Rights Council resolution condemning the regime.

In our country [the US] and the rest of the free world, debates between realists and idealists differ on the priority we should give support for human rights in the conduct of our relations with other countries. Very few civilized people suggest that the advocacy of human rights has no role in foreign policy.… [However,], there is little evidence such considerations would enter the equations being worked out in the minds of Russian and Chinese leaders.

In Moscow and Beijing, human dignity, democratic governance and rule of law are not just trivial concerns in the formulation of statecraft that prioritizes self-interest over morality. Those values are considered inimical to their self-interest. They view the spread of freedom and justice in the world as a threat to their international influence and a boon to ours, just as they view the full possession of human rights by their own citizens as a threat to their rule.…

Although it was clearer to the free world during the Cold War, it remains the case today: The difference between us and the governments of China and Russia is more profound than occasional clashes of interests or cultural dissimilarities. We are moral opposites.… It is not chauvinism to claim we are morally superior to them. We are, and the proof is in our behavior. We are imperfect, and transgress against our own values on occasion. But we remain, flaws and all, the best hope of mankind. We have a sense of justice that can spur us to action. We care for human dignity. We are outraged by the murder of innocents.

In all the talk of resetting relations and finding common interests with the governments of Russia and China, it is foolish to forget we are as different from them as night and day, and we will be adversaries until we share the same values. To them, this is obvious. It should be to us as well.

(Mark Salter is the former chief of staff to Senator John McCain.)

OBAMA’S CHRISTMAS PRESENT TO ASSAD
Michael Rubin

Contentions, December 2, 2011

While the unrest in Syria intensifies and Syria teeters on the brink of full-blown civil war…it remains fair to ask what Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s thinking is.… Should Bashar leave, he would not necessarily be denied a comfortable retirement. Unlike the late Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi, for example, Bashar never tried to kill the king of Saudi Arabia, thereby disqualifying himself from that retirement community of washed-up dictators.

There is a reason why Bashar is thumbing his nose at the international community: He believes he must only wait out the next three weeks to be home free. President Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq is an early Christmas present. Syria has just one consistent ally in the region: Iran. Aerial resupply is vulnerable without control of the Iraqi airspace, and Turkish sanctions may have disrupted Iran’s supply of Syria through that former ally of Bashar al-Assad. All this changes by Christmas, however, when American forces complete their withdrawal from Iraq, in a move which Vice President Joe Biden assures us is not a victory.

If Biden was once Tehran’s favorite senator, then certainly Obama is the Supreme Leader’s fantasy president.… Thanks to Obama’s willingness to walk away from talks and abandon the American relationship with Iraq, Bashar can expect his first Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reinforcements just after Christmas. Why should he throw in the towel now?

ASSAD’S ARMED OPPOSITION: THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY
Jeffrey White

Jerusalem Post, December 8, 2011

…The Free Syrian Army (FSA), the armed opposition group that has emerged to confront the Assad regime, appears to be gaining in strength and effectiveness, and Damascus now faces both peaceful and armed resistance. So far, the FSA has proven resilient in the face of regime measures to suppress it.

The FSA was formally announced on July 29, but can trace its origins to well before that. The group’s formation was a reaction to regime brutality against peaceful mass protests. Desertion from the Syrian army increased as individual soldiers and small units refused to obey orders to shoot unarmed demonstrators or simply decided to abandon the regime. Although not all of these soldiers have joined the FSA, numerous media reports indicate a steady flow of defectors into the group’s ranks.…

Based on available evidence, the FSA has a chain of command, organizational and rank structures and named units.

Organization and forces

The FSA appears to be a relatively flat organization, with a command and headquarters in Turkey, possibly a set of regional or area commands with subordinate groups in Syria, and, according to media reports, one or two combat elements in Lebanon. Command and control appears to be relatively loose, with the Turkish headquarters providing general direction and the units in Syria exercising largely independent control over their operations.

Earlier this month elements of two units in the Damascus area—the Abu Ubaydah al-Jarah Battalion and the Muawiyah bin Abi Sufyan Battalion—reportedly cooperated in an action against regime forces, suggesting at least some degree of coordination.…

The FSA’s order of battle (command structure, units, deployment, strength and equipment) is becoming somewhat clearer over time. The group claims to have as many as twenty-two “battalions” operating against the regime.… FSA membership appears to consist largely of experienced military personnel—a cadre of officers and noncommissioned officers with, in some cases, social connections to local families and clans, towns and neighborhoods. In other words, they know how to use weapons and are fighting on terrain they know. The total number of FSA personnel is uncertain. The group’s leadership has claimed 10,000-15,000, but this seems too high. A more likely range is in the low thousands.…

FSA weapons seem to be mostly small arms (rifles, light machine guns), rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), some heavy machine guns and various explosive devices.… These types of weapons are generally well suited to the primarily urban fighting waged so far in Syria.…

Deployment and operations

The FSA is operating throughout Syria, both in urban areas and in the countryside. Forces are active in the northwest (Idlib, Aleppo), the central region (Homs, Hama, and Rastan), the coast around Latakia, the south (Deraa and Houran), the east (Deir a-Zor, Abu Kamal) and the Damascus area. The largest concentration of these forces appears to be in the central region (Homs, Hama, and surrounding areas), with nine or more battalions reportedly active there.…

Operations have included defense of local areas, ambushes of convoys and vehicles, attacks on regime positions and facilities, attacks on regime security forces and militia elements, attacks on regime officials and military officers, intervention against regime forces attacking demonstrators, and road closings. The FSA has also fought at least three serious “battles”: for Rastan/Talbisah (September 27-October 1), for Homs (October 28-November 8), and for Kherbet Ghazalah (November 14).

These actions featured sustained engagements with regime forces, and although the FSA broke off the fighting in each case, it was able to inflict losses and generate more defections.… The FSA’s actions are compelling the regime to deploy forces throughout the country and fight, not just continue to shoot unarmed civilians.

Outlook

The Assad regime cannot survive without killing, and the FSA has changed the game from one in which the regime was free to kill its citizens at will and without cost, to one in which it faces an armed opposition and is suffering losses.…

Because the FSA is an increasingly important player that will likely influence the outcome of events in Syria, the United States and its partners should make contact with its members and learn as much as possible about the group. Questions concerning its nature, its potential as an armed force, and the role of Islamists can be resolved through such contact as well as intelligence work. If the results are positive, then the FSA should be assisted wherever outside aid would be both possible and effective.…

(Jeffrey White is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Studies.)

A GLOBALIZED NETWORK OF CONSIDERATIONS ENABLES
THE ON-GOING BUTCHERING OF THOUSANDS OF SYRIANS
Mordechai Kedar

Independent Media Review & Analysis, December 2, 2011

The horrible events that have been occurring in Syria for the past nine months raise a worrying question: Why isn’t the world getting involved in what’s going on there? Why did NATO interfere in Libya to bring about the fall of the Qadhafi regime but in Syria the slaughter continues without the world lifting a finger?…

The whole world clearly knows that Syria is very important to Iran, and indeed Syria is the Iranian Trojan horse inside the Arab world; it is the logistical backbone of Hizballah in Lebanon, so the fall of the Syrian regime will end the Syrian support for Hizballah.… Iran has cautioned the whole world that external interference in Syria will be considered by Iran as an attack upon itself, which will result in acts of reprisals against Israel and Turkey.…

Turkey is constantly stirring up matters in Syria. Not one day passes without it’s leaders…announcing that Assad must resign and leave office, and the Turks are hosting thousands of Syrian refugees in their country. Recently, there have been scattered reports that Turkey has established a training camp within its territory for the Syrian citizens and soldiers who deserted their posts, in order to turn them into guerrilla units under the title of “The Free Syrian Army”. Turkey arms and equips them, and these are the ones who are attacking military camps, intelligence headquarters and buses of the Syrian army.…

Turkey threatens to take over several kilometers in the North of Syria along its border with Turkey, to serve as a protected buffer zone where Syrian citizens will be able to find shelter from the Syrian army. In response, Iran threatens Turkey that it will attack “NATO positions” in Turkey if Turkey will attack Syria. This warning amounts to no less than a threat of war between Iran and Turkey.

Iran’s reaction to the fall of the Assad regime may not be limited only to Turkey and Israel, but may include the Gulf. If the Iranians see that Europe is also involved in the overthrow of the Syrian regime, they may announce that there’s one naval mine—only one—in the Straights of Hormuz. This announcement would be enough—even if it wasn’t actually so—to raise the price of oil drastically in the world, and the sputtering economy of Europe will suffer a hard blow. Iran can very easily harm oil installations in the countries of the Gulf without even deploying the army; it would be enough to pay a few Shiites in Saudi Arabia to do to the oil and gas pipes in their country what the Bedouin are doing in Sinai, to the pipe that brings gas to Israel and Jordan.

Europe and The United States might react to the Iranian action and the deterioration into war between Iran and NATO may follow quickly. The result of this war would be—among other things—cessation of the export of Iranian oil to China, and a dramatic rise in the price of oil in the world. China has invested many billions in the petrochemical and other industries in Iran, and a NATO war on Iran may bring about regime change. The new regime might renege on the agreements that the Ayatollahs have made with China. This is the reason for China’s support of Iran and Syria.

Russia supports Syria too, because it too has invested many billions in Syria and Iran, and worries about these investments. But Russia has an additional, much larger fear: the fall of the regime in Syria, and the war that may break out in the Gulf as a result of that, might cause great damage to the Chinese economy.… High unemployment in China will cause many millions of unemployed Chinese to join the millions of Chinese who are flooding into Russia today in search of work. If there is anything that the Russian leaders fear, it is to be swallowed up demographically by the Chinese.… Russia [also] has military and intelligence bases in Syria, and the only ports in the Mediterranean Sea in which Russian warships anchor on an ongoing basis are the Syrian ports, Latakia, Tartus and Banias. The toppling of the Assad regime by NATO might bring to power a Western-leaning regime, and Russia will lose its special privileges in Syria.…

The economic crisis in China that might result from a war in the Gulf will also have an influence on the economy of the United States, because China lent many billions to the USA in recent years in order to support the White House in its efforts to stabilize the American economy. A crisis in China might cause China to demand the US to pay their debt or they may raise the interest on it. A scenario such as this might…damage the president’s chances for reelection.…

The fall of the Syrian regime may influence Israel as well. On one hand, it will result in the partitioning of Syria into a number of countries: Kurdish in the North, Alawite in the West, Druze in the South, Bedouin in the East and two more in Damascus and Aleppo, which have never had great love between them. This partition will improve the mood in the area, due to the departure of an illegitimate regime, which has castigated Israel all the years in order to unite all of the groups under Assad’s aegis. But the fall of the regime might also create difficult problems: a) weapons belonging to the Syrian army might get into the hands of Hizballah and other terror organizations who have representation in Syria, and b) the worsening struggle between the regime and the citizens in Syria might cause thousands of Syrians to request refuge—perhaps only temporary—in the Golan Heights.…

One sad conclusion that arises from the aforesaid is that the motives that drive the world today are economic and military interests, not ethics nor human rights. The UN, which was established in the wake of the Second World War, in order to prevent a similar occurrence, does not do anything in order to stop the butchering of thousands of Syrians which might deteriorate into a multi-national crisis.…

World leaders are well aware of the physical law, “Water seeks its own level”, and this is the very reason that the world is reluctant to give the Syrian regime what it deserves. This is another price that “les miserables” pay for globalization: a shock in one place is felt well in many other places, and the Syrians are paying the price in blood for the economic interests of many countries. Nevertheless, and despite the dangers, the world without the dark and bloodthirsty regime of Syria will be a better place, and if it will be possible for the regime of the Iranian Ayatollahs to join Assad in his final resting place, the world will surely be better, calmer and far less dangerous.

(Dr. Mordechai Kedar, an Israeli scholar of Arabic and Islam, lectures at Bar-Ilan University.)

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