Assad’s Victory is at Hand: Robert Fulford, National Post, Feb. 27, 2016— More than a quarter of a million Syrians have been killed since the Arab Spring of 2011 set the stage for the civil war in Syria.
Israel and Syria: Jerusalem Post, Feb. 14, 2016— What effect, if any, will the Syrian cease-fire plan have on Israel?
Hezbollah is Learning Russian: Alexander Corbeil, Carnegie Endowment, Feb. 26, 2016 — Hezbollah has suffered several setbacks since it began its involvement in the Syrian war…
Europe is Planning to Deport Hundreds of Thousands of Muslims: Lawrence Solomon, National Post, Feb. 8, 2016— In a recent reversal, Sweden now says it will deport half of its 160,000 migrants…
Airstrikes Resume Amid Shaky Syria Truce: Raja Abdulrahim & Dana Ballout, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 28, 2016
A Kurdish Convergence in Syria: Michael Cruickshank & Gissur Simonarson, New York Times, Feb. 25, 2016
Syria: Jihadi Group Claims to Kill ‘Dozens’ of Russian Generals with Car Bomb: John Hayward, Breitbart, Feb. 24, 2016
One Syrian’s Journey From Hometown Rebel to ISIS Bomber: Hwaida Saad & Anne Barnard, New York Times, Jan. 15, 2016
Robert Fulford
National Post, Feb. 27, 2016
More than a quarter of a million Syrians have been killed since the Arab Spring of 2011 set the stage for the civil war in Syria. About 11 million other Syrians have been forced from their homes by the fighting. About four million have left the country in an attempt to find safety elsewhere. As a UN report recently put it, Syria is a “fractured state on the brink of collapse.”
Russia and the U.S. have jointly announced…a cessation of hostilities in Syria (Feb. 27, 2016) … Russia has agreed to convince the Syrian government and its Iranian allies to stop fighting. The U.S. has agreed to get a similar undertaking from the factions that, with some U.S. help, have been fighting against the Syrian government. The Arab League, the European Union, the United Nations and 17 countries took part in the talks last November that led to the current negotiations.
Never in the history of human bargaining have so many argued so much and produced so little. Diplomacy is the art of pursuing results with little hope of success. Many of the diplomats involved expect the Syrian truce to fail, mainly because the two sides expect such different results. The High Negotiations Committee (HNC), representing the anti-government forces, expects an end to attacks on civilians, the freeing of prisoners and the delivery of food and medical supplies to regions isolated by war.
The president of Syria, Bashar Assad? Clearly he lives by narcissism and wishful thinking. He does not know, or believe, that he started the civil war when he turned soldiers loose on non-violent protesters opposing government policy. Eventually, the protesters and their friends answered violence with violence. Bombs have since turned much of Syria into rubble and transformed Assad into a major-league villain.
Yet he now expects that somehow he will be allowed to remain in power. And, if he pulls off a few more miracles, that may happen. There are said to be many Syrians who despise him and yet stay at his side in the wan hope that he can recreate the peaceful pre-war days, and because all known alternatives are even worse.
Russia is on his side, giving him hope for his future and stoking Vladimir Putin’s self-image as an international statesman.
At Latakia on the Mediterranean, Syria’s main seaport and the historical centre of the Assad-supporting Alawites, the Russians have built their Khmeimim airbase, with air-conditioned accommodation for 1,000 personnel and a complement of fighter-bombers and transports, along with many tanks and an advanced rocket-firing air defence system. Since the days of the British and French, few foreign states have so quickly set down such permanent-looking roots in the Middle East.
This week, the Assad government, with heavy air support from Russia, recaptured from ISIL the town of Khanaser, not far from Aleppo, a strategic centre much in contention. Russia has said that in future it expects to focus all its operations in Syria against ISIL and other terrorists. However that works out, Russia has brought Assad the equivalent of an air force, making the Syrian rebels helpless. Having lost in the civil war more territory than he now governs, Assad can dream of once more presiding over the whole country.
Two weeks ago, Assad gave a detailed account of Syria’s crisis as he sees it. He defined those who claim to be the opposition as “traitors and terrorists,” backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. He said these terrorists portray themselves as peaceful statesmen who wish only freedom for Syria. They call for negotiations, he said, but, “No country can agree to negotiate with terrorists.” Assad claims he’s supporting the Syrian people and the integrity of the state. Foreign countries have suggested that after the cease-fire a transitional phase might lead to changes, but “any transitional phase” must operate under the current Syrian constitution. That means under Assad’s direction.
A million editorials and numberless speeches from politicians have charged “Humanity” with saving the Syrians. It is widely believed that “Humanity,” when its moral sense is awakened, can do something. This time, it huffed and puffed, but with little effect. On Thursday morning, in the midst of controversy over the truce, the UN elected Syria (that is, Assad’s Syria) as co-chair with Venezuela of the decolonization committee that considers still-existing colonies such as Gibraltar, French Polynesia and the Virgin Islands. The committee’s job is assessing the “Subjugation of Peoples.” No one can say the UN has no sense of humour. Next month the war will be five years old.
Jerusalem Post, Feb. 14, 2016
What effect, if any, will the Syrian cease-fire plan have on Israel? Announced in Munich last week by the major world powers – including Russia and the US – the plan calls for a “cessation of hostilities” within a week and immediate access for humanitarian supplies. “We believe we have made progress on both the humanitarian front and the cessation of hostilities front, and these two fronts, this progress, has the potential – fully implemented, fully followed through on – to be able to change the daily lives of the Syrian people,” US Secretary of State John Kerry declared on (Feb. 11, 2016).
The cease-fire effort is an attempt by the US and EU to end the civil war that has resulted in half a million deaths (sic), and to stop the waves of refugees making their way to Europe through Turkey. The humanitarian crisis in Syria since the civil war began five years ago has reached massive proportions with eight million Syrians – or about a third of the population – uprooted from their homes. But without a more robust American involvement in Syria, the cease-fire plan is unlikely to succeed and this could have an indirect impact on Israeli interests.
It seems likely that Russia and Russia’s allies in Syria – which include the Assad regime, Iranian forces and Hezbollah – are poised to benefit from the cease-fire. That’s because it contains a major loophole: The agreement doesn’t apply to Islamic State or the Nusra Front, two of the main targets of Assad and his allies, which leaves Moscow free to continue its air war in Syria. That means fighting in some parts of the country would continue – and even intensify – even if the cease-fire takes effect as planned.
And because insurgent groups supported by the US, Saudi Arabia and Qatar often cooperate in some places with the well-armed, well-financed Nusra Front out of tactical necessity, Russia can easily argue that many of these opposition forces are, in effect, Nusra affiliates. In any event, Russia has been bombing opposition groups positioned nowhere near Nusra or Islamic State. And there is no reason to believe that the Russians will stop in the wake of a cease-fire agreement that permits them to continue to fight Nusra. They will simply claim they are attacking Islamic State and Nusra when in reality they are attacking other rebel forces.
This means Russia’s indiscriminate bombing of Sunni- controlled areas will likely continue, particularly in Aleppo and in Deraa province, the latter the less important of the two, situated in southern Syria, close to the border with Jordan. Deraa has symbolic importance because it is where Sunni tribesman started the civil war five years. Capturing Deraa is also of strategic importance for the Russians and Bashar Assad. Rebels would be cut off from assistance from Jordan. And the Nusra Front’s headquarters are located there.
The fate of Deraa is important to Israel because it is just 35 kilometers from the border fence on the Golan Heights. If the Russians capture Deraa their next step might be to recapture the Syrian Golan in cooperation with Hezbollah and the Iranians. Russian jets would be operating dangerously close to Israel, which would test the coordination between the IDF and the Russian Air Force. If the Russian-Syrian coalition captures the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, it would make it easier for the Iranians and Hezbollah to open up another front for terrorist attacks against Israel.
Admittedly, Moscow has no interest in seeing Iran and Hezbollah open up a new front with Israel. Israeli counterattacks on forces working with the Assad regime would weaken the Assad coalition. Russia does not want to see this happen. Nevertheless, Hezbollah and Iran might take the risk of carrying out limited terrorist attacks that do not lead to major Israeli retaliations, and Israel might be hesitant to respond aggressively out of concern it might hit Russian troops in the process. The cease-fire negotiated in Munich is unlikely to bring about an end to the slaughter in Syria. It is more likely to allow Russia to continue to attack Sunni targets indiscriminately. The Assad regime and its allies would then be strengthened. And this could have bad ramifications for Israel. It is imperative that Israel continue to closely monitor the situation in Syria and not let its guard down.
Alexander Corbeil
Carnegie Endowment, Feb. 26, 2016
Hezbollah has suffered several setbacks since it began its involvement in the Syrian war—over 1,300 of its fighters have been killed and thousands injured, it has had to cut back on social services it provides to its constituency and had to resort to recruiting teenagers for the fight in Syria. However, the Syrian civil war, especially the recent Russian involvement is also helping enhance the group’s fighting capabilities which is likely to have significant political and security implications in Lebanon and beyond.
Hezbollah has proven to be a forward-thinking and malleable fighting force. In 2012, when the group began to engage more robustly in Syria, it quickly learned that its defensive tactics were not applicable to the fight. Instead of a modern Israeli army, Hezbollah faced an insurgency. These rebel groups applied similar tactics to Hezbollah’s against regime soldiers and further benefited from local knowledge of the terrain in areas crucial to Bashar al-Assad’s survival. For instance, during the capture of Qusayr in 2013 Hezbollah reportedly lost around one-tenth of its fighters, with estimates ranging from 70 to 120 dead and 200 wounded, up to two dozen of whom were killed in a rebel ambush on the first day of that offensive; what Hezbollah leaders thought would be a quick victory instead turned into a drawn-out fight. Fast-forwarding to 2016, Hezbollah has refined its offensive capabilities and—under the cover of a new powerful ally, Russia—continued to help the Syrian regime take back crucial territory with lower casualty rates.
In September 2015, the Russian military entered the conflict in support of Assad, reversing the course of the war. Having suffered heavy losses, including in the city of Idlib, it seemed it was but a matter of time before the regime collapsed. But beginning in January 2016, the Syrian regime, Hezbollah, other Iranian proxy groups, and the Russian military have dealt a series of crushing blows to the country’s myriad of rebel groups. On January 12, Hezbollah and regime forces, backed by the Russian air force and artillery, captured the town of Salma, the last rebel bastion in Latakia governorate and which had threatened the regime’s coastal enclave. This was followed by the capture of the town of Sheikh Miskeen in Daraa on January 26, reportedly by regime fighters, Hezbollah, and Russian special forces. This split rebel holdings in Daraa into eastern and western pockets and cut them off from rebel-held areas in Damascus. The biggest coup by this combined force came on February 4, when Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias under the cover of Russian airstrikes broke the siege of Nubl and Zahraa. The predominantly Shia towns had been surrounded by rebel forces for three years, and in the process pro-regime forces cut their primary supply route linking Aleppo and the Turkish border. It is now likely that these forces will surround and attempt to starve out rebels in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.
These victories make it apparent that the combination of regime irregulars, foreign militias, Hezbollah fighters, and crushing Russian bombardment has been a winning one in Syria. They have also had significant impact on Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities. While Hezbollah commanders have claimed to have received advanced weaponry from Russia, such assertions are hard to verify and have been disputed by Western officials and analysts, who believe that Moscow would not want to threaten its relationship with Hezbollah’s main enemy, Israel. It is more likely that the group is learning how a world-class army gathers intelligence, makes plans, and executes operations. Working side-by-side with Russian officers is sure to refine Hezbollah’s modern military strategy, and reports indicate that there are at least two joint Russia–Hezbollah operation rooms in Latakia and Damascus. With an estimated 6,000 to 8,000 Hezbollah fighters in Syria and Iraq, the exposure and experience is likely to trickle down to individual fighters.
Other experts have pointed out that Hezbollah will likely learn better surveillance and reconnaissance skills, employ special operations tactics, and learn more about upgraded equipment they will want to use in the future. This would better enable them to detect enemy forces, execute misinformation campaigns, analyze imagery intelligence, and make appropriate use of drones in the lead up to and execution of military operations. The latter is quite important, as Hezbollah has built a drone airstrip in the Bekaa Valley and has employed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) over Syria to provide aerial reconnaissance and targeting information for its forces on the ground. These eyes in the sky have proven useful in the battle for the Qalamoun Mountains that straddle the Lebanese–Syrian border, where the group has helped the Syrian army surround Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State, and could be employed in future conflict with Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces estimate that Russia’s interaction with Hezbollah decreases the latter’s likelihood of war with Israel in the near future, figuring that Russia’s dialogue with the group is likely to restrain its response to perceived Israeli airstrikes at a time that Hezbollah is playing a crucial role in the Syrian regime’s advance. Furthermore, the Israeli army also views claims that the Russians are arming Hezbollah as baseless. Yet the longer-term impact of Hezbollah’s interaction with the Russian military is more worrying. A newly offense-minded Hezbollah, capable of more complex operations, could deal heavier blows to the Israeli army in a confrontation along the southern Lebanese border. It may even attempt to enter Israeli territory, as Hamas did in the 2014 conflict, albeit in a more capable manner.
Inside Lebanon, Hezbollah’s enhanced capabilities will ensure that the group continues to have a comparative military advantage vis-à-vis the Lebanese army, which has just had a $3 billion aid package suspended by Saudi Arabia. Improved tactics and diminished support to the national army will likely support Hezbollah’s argument that it is the only force capable of defending Lebanon from Israeli aggression and the radical Sunni threat. Already bolstered politically by the survival of the Syrian regime and the success of its own efforts in Syria—the continuation of which is thanks to Russian military support—the group will further push its agenda on crucial decisions regarding the Lebanese presidency, changes to parliamentary election practices, and security appointments. Hezbollah’s Russia education may stop with the end of the conflict in Syria, but its impact will continue to reverberate in Lebanon and the region.
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF MUSLIMS
Lawrence Solomon
National Post, Feb. 8, 2016
In a recent reversal, Sweden now says it will deport half of its 160,000 migrants, Finland plans to deport two-thirds of its 32,000 migrants and Germany intends to deport all migrants who arrived under false pretenses – a number that could total many hundreds of thousands – as well as all migrants from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, which Germany now deems “safe” countries because they are not at war. Most countries in Europe, in fact, are now cracking down on migrants from Muslim countries, raising the possibility of a modern-day expulsion that rivals that of the 16th and 17th centuries, when Spain, to its shame, not only ethnically cleansed its territories of all Muslims but also of their descendants who had converted to Christianity.
The sea change in attitude among Europe’s political leadership – mere weeks ago, many of them insisted that they must open their doors even wider on humanitarian grounds – followed mass sexual assaults in European cities on New Year’s Eve. Although government officials and the mainstream press initially tried to cover up the extent of the wrong-doing – an estimated 1,000 Muslims in Cologne alone participated in “Taharrush,” a practice of encircling, groping and sometimes raping women – the extent of the assaults led to a fire-storm of outrage on social media that forced both the mainstream media and the politicians to acknowledge the problems and reverse course.
The reversals were a long time coming, given what Europeans have endured in recent years from the uncontrolled influx of more than a million migrants, most of them Muslim men with little appreciation of Western values. Sexual assaults aside – rapes in many European countries are disproportionately attributed by law enforcement and NGOs to Muslims – crime by migrants is rampant. Hamburg police reports 20,000 purse-snatches a year, 90 per cent of them by males in their 20s from North Africa or the Balkans. In 2014, even before the migrant stampede accelerated, 38,000 asylum seekers had been accused of committing crimes.
With Europeans increasingly stating that they don’t recognize their own countries anymore, and don’t feel safe in it, politicians now face a furious backlash. Citizens are protesting in the streets and through social media. Anti-immigrant political parties are on the rise and often lead in the polls. Forty per cent of Germans now demand the resignation of once-popular German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Opposition to the governments’ open-immigration policies doesn’t manifest itself only through peaceful outlets. Mob justice is also increasing with hooded nativists intimidating and attacking migrants. With disrespect for the rule of law increasing across the board, societal breakdown has become thinkable, all a consequence of a soft-headed if soft-hearted desire to help desperate refugees.
It’s easy to see things getting much worse before they get much better. For one thing, it won’t be easy to identify which migrants are genuine, and are entitled to refugee status, and which have taken advantage of the chaos at the borders merely to partake of Europe’s welfare benefits. German media, for example, reports that the whereabouts of half of those seeking asylum are unknown while hundreds of thousands of others, according to the German government, entered the country surreptitiously, circumventing any background checks. Even when found, deporting migrants will be difficult, since those from Bangladesh, Pakistan, Tunisia, Morocco and other countries that do not qualify for refugee status routinely destroy their passports and other identifying documents, to prevent their deportation from Europe, while others purchase counterfeit Syrian documents to feign their bona fides…
Many migrants won’t take kindly to being deported, not least because home-grown activists will rise to their defense and because, as intelligence agencies report, the ranks of the migrants have been seeded by jihadists. Defiance by migrants, including rioting, is already common. As their defiance increases, so too will the backlash by the public, leading to both vigilantism and demands for curbs on immigration, changing the character of Western democracies. The free movement of peoples has begun to be restricted – for the first time since 1952, for example, Scandinavians require identification when crossing from Denmark to Sweden, the upshot of regulations introduced last month to stem illegal migrants.
The restrictions on movement can only deepen. Following the terror attacks in Paris, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security gave notice to European nations that visas may be required to enter the U.S. in future if better controls aren’t put in place, and last week the U.S. Senate in homeland security hearings raised questions about Canada’s plan to absorb 25,000 refugees. Because attacks on Western soil by jihadists posing as migrants are all but inevitable, more restrictions compounding today’s baggage checks and privacy intrusions are also all-but inevitable.
Canada has until recently entirely avoided the immigration turmoil, let alone civilizational threats, afflicting much of the West. Because we haven’t yet recklessly accepted untoward levels of migrants, we are not under pressure to recklessly deport untoward levels of migrants, as is occurring in the liberal democracies of Europe. Yet we have been coming perilously close to repeating Europe’s errors. During the last federal election campaign, a mass hysteria over the plight of migrants, and the perception that Canada was failing to be as welcoming to them as European nations, contributed to the election of Justin Trudeau, who came to office on a vow to rewrite immigration procedures in order to rush in 25,000 Syrian refugees by Christmas. When the Christmas target wasn’t met, an embarrassed government decided to double down by raising the number of Syrian migrants to 50,000 by the end of this year, an impetuous decision that seems driven by the same mix of political and humanitarian impulses that blindly led so many European countries to grief.
Canada’s historic approach to immigration since Confederation – welcoming the multitudes who would fit in, but also requiring them to fit it – has served this country well, allowing us to maintain our liberties and grow our economy. Europe’s cautionary tale, coming to us now as it does, when we are at risk of falling prey to reckless, politically correct thinking on immigration, could not have been a more timely reminder of the ways in which our historic immigration policies have been wise.
Airstrikes Resume Amid Shaky Syria Truce: Raja Abdulrahim & Dana Ballout, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 28, 2016—The Syrian regime and its Russian allies stepped up airstrikes on opposition-held territory Sunday on the second day of an internationally backed cease-fire after a lull in violence a day earlier, according to antigovernment activists.
A Kurdish Convergence in Syria: Michael Cruickshank & Gissur Simonarson, New York Times, Feb. 25, 2016—On Feb. 17, a bus filled with Turkish soldiers stopped alongside a car at a red light in Ankara. Moments later, a dark column of smoke rose over what had been considered the most secure district of the Turkish capital. A suicide car bomb had ripped through the military bus, killing 28 and injuring more than 60.
Syria: Jihadi Group Claims to Kill ‘Dozens’ of Russian Generals with Car Bomb: John Hayward, Breitbart, Feb. 24, 2016—An Islamist militant group in Syria called Ahrar al-Sham claims to have killed “dozens of Russian generals” with a car bomb attack in Latakia on Sunday afternoon.
One Syrian’s Journey From Hometown Rebel to ISIS Bomber: Hwaida Saad & Anne Barnard, New York Times, Jan. 15, 2016 —In the early years of Syria’s revolt, he filmed protests in the streets of his rebel-held neighborhood, in the historic center of the city of Homs. He chanted for dignity and freedom with a green, white and black banner, the old version of the national flag.
