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Scores Killed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula as Militants, Army Clash: Dahlia Kholaif & Tamer El-Ghobashy Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2015 — Fierce fighting between Islamist militants and Egyptian army forces in the northern Sinai Peninsula on Wednesday left at least 117 people dead, state media said, in the bloodiest clashes between the two sides since Hosni Mubarak was forced from power in a popular revolt four years ago.
Terror Escalation in Egypt: Yoni Ben Menachem, JCPA, July 2, 2015— In recent days, in the midst of the Islamic holy month Ramadan, a wave of terror has swept over Egypt.
The Islamic State Caliphate Turns One: Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Middle East Forum, July 1, 2015 — As we pass the one-year anniversary since the announcement of ISIS's so-called "caliphate" demanding the allegiance of the world's Muslims and ultimately sovereignty over the entire world, much of the commentary has been far too ephemeral.
In Iran Talks, Khamenei Calls the Shots, Not Obama: Yossi Melman, Jerusalem Post, June 29, 2015 — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can be temporarily satisfied. Due to good intelligence the Iran nuclear talks will probably not be finalized before the deadline on Tuesday.
Netanyahu: ISIS is Near Our Border: Itamar Eichner, Ynet, July 1, 2015
ISIS Threatens Hamas, Fatah and 'State of the Jews' in Video: Elad Benari, Arutz Sheva, July 1, 2015
For Egypt, Avenging Sinai Attack May Include Striking Gaza: Avi Issacharoff, Times of Israel, July 2, 2014
Plan B For Iran: Michael Crowley, Politico, June 24, 2015
SCORES KILLED IN EGYPT’S SINAI PENINSULA
Dahlia Kholaif & Tamer El-Ghobashy
Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2015
Fierce fighting between Islamist militants and Egyptian army forces in the northern Sinai Peninsula on Wednesday left at least 117 people dead, state media said, in the bloodiest clashes between the two sides since Hosni Mubarak was forced from power in a popular revolt four years ago. The violence, which erupted two days after Egypt’s top prosecutor was assassinated in a suspected militant bomb attack in the Cairo suburb of Heliopolis, underscored the government’s vulnerability in the arid, thinly populated Sinai, where the army’s stepped up counterinsurgency operations have so far had little success in quelling Islamist rebel groups, Western officials and analysts say.
Wednesday’s fighting flared after 70 militants launched simultaneous assaults on military checkpoints in the Sinai town of Sheikh Zuwayed, an army spokesman said. The Islamist group Sinai Province, a local affiliate of Islamic State, said it carried out three suicide attacks and battled Egyptian security forces at more than 15 sites in the northern Sinai, according to a statement distributed by the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors and verifies global jihadist activity.
In a sign of the fighting’s intensity, Egypt’s air force deployed F-16 fighter jets and Apache attack helicopters to Sinai to reinforce ground forces, who Egyptian officials said were slowed by improvised explosive devices planted along roads by Islamist fighters. Seventeen government soldiers were killed and 13 wounded, said a statement late Wednesday by the armed forces on late Wednesday, as the fighting subsided by nightfall and security was beefed up around the Suez Canal. More than 100 militants were also killed, the statement said.
The statement didn’t explain the discrepancy with earlier official statements indicating 60 soldiers had been killed and wounded in combat. None of the casualty tolls could be independently confirmed, as the government maintained a two-year restriction on media access to the northern Sinai.
Smoke billowing from explosions was seen across the border in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the attacks as acts of “vicious terrorism” and extended his condolences to Egypt’s government, its people and the victims’ families. Israel also closed its border crossing with Egypt in the northern Sinai in what it said was a security precaution.
In Washington, the White House also condemned the attacks on Egyptian security forces. “The U.S. stands resolutely with Egypt amid the spate of terrorist attacks that have afflicted the country and, in the context of our long-standing partnership, will continue to assist Egypt in addressing these threats to its security,” said Ned Price, spokesman for the National Security Council.
Last week, Islamic State spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani urged his group’s followers to launch massive attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, now entering its third week. Egypt’s military has been the focus of antigovernment anger in Sinai since it led the coup in 2013 that forced President Mohammed Morsi, a top Muslim Brotherhood official, from office. Mr. Morsi became Egypt’s first freely elected leader in June 2012, some 15 months after mass protests that became emblematic of the Arab Spring swept Mr. Mubarak from office. The government has regularly accused the Brotherhood of being responsible for the wave of militant attacks on police and military installations in Sinai and elsewhere in Egypt that followed the coup, allegations the Brotherhood has denied.
Although there has been no clear claim of responsibility for Monday’s killing of state prosecutor Hisham Barakat, the government blamed it on the Brotherhood. Rights groups say thousands of supporters of Mr. Morsi and the Brotherhood have already been killed and jailed in a crackdown by Egyptian authorities.
As the fighting raged Wednesday in the Sinai, security officials said police officers killed nine armed members of the Muslim Brotherhood in a Cairo suburb. The police officers came under fire as they attempted to arrest the men, the officials told state media, and returned fire “liquidating” the threat. In a statement issued by their London office, the Brotherhood said the victims were unarmed group and had been meeting to coordinate support for the families of detainees. The group included a former Muslim Brotherhood member of parliament and several senior members of the group, the statement said.
Egypt’s cabinet backed also calls by President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi in the wake of Mr. Barakat’s death for tougher antiterror laws, approving legislation that will enable the country’s judiciary to expedite terrorism cases through the courts. The law is expected to be ratified by Mr. Sisi, who holds exclusive legislative authority in Egypt in the absence of a parliament. The Sinai clashes underlined the increasing strength of Islamist militant groups in Egypt and the ineffectiveness of the country’s military, Western diplomats and analysts said…
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
Yoni Ben Menachem
JCPA, 2 July, 2015
In recent days, in the midst of the Islamic holy month Ramadan, a wave of terror has swept over Egypt. This wave is not occurring randomly. It could have been predicted beforehand, since this month marks two important dates for terror organizations. One is the first anniversary of the declaration of the founding of ISIS’ Islamic Caliphate; the other is the second anniversary of the ouster of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government headed by President Mohamed Morsi, which transpired on June 30, 2013.
ISIS has fulfilled its promise to step up terror attacks during the “month of fire” of Ramadan, which it views as a worthy religious occasion for terror. After a string of attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait, Egypt’s turn has come – at the hands of ISIS’ affiliate in northern Sinai known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis or Sinai Province (Wilayat Sinai in Arabic). ISIS’ affiliate indeed dominates northern Sinai, and the ISIS leadership views the area as an integral part of the Islamic Caliphate.
In recent months, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has reinforced the Sinai front with additional army units and senior commanders experienced in fighting terror; the army has also managed to recruit several local Bedouin tribes to the anti-ISIS struggle. However, the Egyptian army is having trouble fighting the terror effectively, and armed clashes with ISIS operatives have become a daily event.
On July 1, in the Sheikh Zuweid area in Sinai, 70 Egyptian soldiers were killed and wounded in a coordinated assault by Ansar Beit al-Maqdis/Islamic State fighters that included mortar and light-weapon fire at five military outposts, as well as a car-bomb attack. According to reports from the Egyptian army, 70 armed ISIS terrorists took part in the attack. This is the first time the organization has deployed such a large military force in Sinai, indicating that its operational capability has improved.
The Egyptian Army mobilized F-16 jets to support ground troops. An army spokesman reported that some 100 terrorists were killed in the ground battle and the air assault. Photographs released by the Egyptian military spokesperson shows dead ISIS fighters all in standardized uniforms and fully outfitted with military gear. The Egyptian newspaper Al-Youm al-Saba’a reported on July 1 that foreign terrorists fought alongside ISIS terrorists, while Al-Masry Al-Youm reported that terrorists who came from the Gaza Strip and infiltrated through tunnels also participated in the attacks against the Egyptian army. This assault represents an unprecedented attack on Egyptian soldiers in Sinai and a serious challenge that ISIS is now posing to the Egyptian army, which will have to find a way to cope with the situation.
Egyptian Prosecutor-General Hisham Barakat, who was assassinated on June 29 in a car-bomb attack in the heart of Cairo, is not the Egyptian legal establishment’s first victim of radical Islamic terrorists. On March 22, 1948, Muslim Brotherhood operatives assassinated Judge Ahmed el–Khazindar, an exploit that shocked Egypt at the time. No one can forget the assassination of President Anwar Sadat on October 6, 1981 by Muslim radicals while he was viewing a military parade. Just before the assassination, the Muslim Brotherhood issued a fatwa calling for his death. Of the 20 clauses in the fatwa, only three dealt with the peace process with Israel, the rest dealt with Egypt and Sadat’s actions against the Muslim Brotherhood.
The second anniversary of President Sisi’s accession to office on June 30 (one day after the assassination of the prosecutor-general) passed relatively quietly in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood only managed to organize a very small number of demonstrations, which ended relatively calmly. The movement, in other words, failed to bring masses of its supporters to the streets to demand the release of Morsi and dozens of other leaders of the movement who have been sentenced to death in Egyptian courts.
Egyptian intelligence officials believe that the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been outlawed, will continue to carry out political assassinations – for two reasons: First, it has a fierce desire to take revenge on Sisi’s government for the removal of the movement’s top leaders from power two years ago and their death sentences. Second, the movement is not succeeding to return to Egyptian political life and is losing its influence over parts of the Egyptian population.
Egyptian security officials think the Muslim Brotherhood’s failure to organize large popular demonstrations on June 30 was to be expected, since its calls to the public evoke no great resonance among the population. Hence, the movement decided to perpetrate a “quality attack” that would shock the country, and Prosecutor-General Barakat paid the price with his life.
Terror attacks on police stations and on vital facilities such as generators and power stations have recently been carried out daily. Young members of the Brotherhood are involved in these attacks. On July 1, Walid al-Barsha, founder of the rebel movement Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, told the Egyptian newspaper Al-Youm al-Saba’a that the Muslim Brotherhood had recently set up “quality committees” of young activists to carry out violent operations. Also on July 1, the newspaper Al-Masri al-Youm reported that young Muslim Brotherhood members have been calling on their Facebook pages for further assassinations of top government officials, including calls for the murder of Sisi, Justice Minister Ahmed al-Zend, and the prosecutor Mohamed Nagi Shehata.
President Sisi has been ruling Egypt for only two years. He took on an Egypt burdened with difficult security and economic conditions and with complex relations with radical Islam. He needs to fight terror, mainly perpetrated by Muslim Brotherhood operatives, within the cities of Egypt itself, along with ISIS terror in Sinai. An Egyptian police force raided a Muslim Brotherhood hideout in Cairo on July 1 and killed nine terrorists, according to police and Brotherhood spokesmen. They were wanted for acts of terror and may be tied to the assassination of Prosecutor-General Barakat. Police found in the apartment weapons, explosives, large sums of money, and e-mail correspondence with Brotherhood leaders in Qatar and Turkey. Police also said they found a “hit-list” of Egyptian political figures.
The war on ISIS is one that has been imposed on Egypt, as it has been imposed on other Arab states, and Sisi will have to find the right military formula to defeat the group in Sinai. President Sisi based his government’s legitimacy on animosity toward the Muslim Brotherhood, which, when it took power about three years ago, aroused loathing among the Egyptian population. Sisi has adopted the same measures that previous Egyptian presidents, such as Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar Sadat, devoted to fighting Muslim Brotherhood terror. Among other things, its leaders have been tried in civilian rather than in military courts, and many have been given death sentences that so far have not been carried out.
When he began serving as president, Sisi was prepared to consider mediation by Arab states to help reach a “national reconciliation” with the Muslim Brotherhood. However, as the movement ramped up its terror attacks, reconciliation ceased to be a possibility from Sisi’s standpoint. Some in the Egyptian media also speak of “uprooting the Muslim Brotherhood” and oppose reconciliation with the movement. On June 30, Sisi announced that, in light of Prosecutor-General Barakat’s murder, he seeks to hasten the implementation of the death sentences and life-imprisonment sentences that have been meted out to Muslim Brotherhood leaders.
It appears that Sisi, in light of security considerations and the huge efforts to salvage the economy, is opting for an iron-fist policy against the Muslim Brotherhood. The bloody conflict with them, therefore, looks likely to continue. The latest wave of terror leaves Sisi no option; His battle is a battle for survival, and he is not prepared to surrender to terrorism.
THE ISLAMIC STATE CALIPHATE TURNS ONE
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Middle East Forum, July 1, 2015
As we pass the one-year anniversary since the announcement of ISIS's so-called "caliphate" demanding the allegiance of the world's Muslims and ultimately sovereignty over the entire world, much of the commentary has been far too ephemeral. The media has had a tendency to take whatever comes out immediately in the news — such as the attack today in Sinai claimed by ISIS and its threat to Hamas in Gaza — as indicative of long-term trends.
This is true both on the ISIS home fronts in Iraq and Syria and on the international stage as a number of official "province" (wilaya) affiliates have been announced in Sinai, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan/Pakistan and, most recently it seems, the Caucasus area. In addition, the international export of the ISIS brand has recently seen a wave of ISIS-claimed (but not confirmed) massacres in Sinai, Kuwait and Tunisia. Illustrating the problem of the tendency to jump on developments as they come are the various proclamations that ISIS is either winning or losing in Iraq and Syria. For instance, the claim that ISIS is winning/on the march was renewed in the wake of ISIS's capture of Iraq's Anbar provincial capital of Ramadi and various towns in the Syrian Homs desert, including the ancient locality of Palmyra/Tadmur.
What such a generalized assessment fails to take into account is some broader context: first, as emerged from documentary evidence circulating on the ground since the end of April, ISIS leader Baghdadi had ordered for a mobilization in the Syrian provinces to reinforce the fighting fronts in Anbar and Salah ad-Din provinces, particularly calling for would-be suicide bombers and operative commandoes. Unsurprisingly then, a wave of suicide bombings proved key in throwing Iraqi forces in Ramadi into disarray. Second, the Assad regime's loss of towns in the Homs desert reflects more its own forces' weakness than ISIS's strength, as the regime has also lost other peripheral areas – in the south, on and near the border with Jordan, and in the north in Idlib province – to an assortment of Syrian rebel forces.
However, while ISIS could mobilize forces in Syria to reinforce fighting fronts in Iraq, it logically follows that ISIS can only focus on so many fronts at once. At the same time, largely unnoticed was the Syrian Kurdish YPG's push with coalition air support towards the key northern border town of Tel Abyad, which ISIS has now lost. Further, ISIS attempted to keep up momentum by launching a new offensive in the north Aleppo countryside in late May, aiming to retake its one-time "Emirate of Azaz" from which it strategically withdrew in February 2014. However, that offensive has largely stalled as various rebel groups including al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra mobilized reinforcements to halt further ISIS advances, leading ISIS to resort to economic siege by preventing trucks carrying fuel extracted from ISIS-held areas from entering rebel zones.
The picture that thus emerges is an organization that is neither winning nor losing: rather, like any long war, there is much ebb and flow. Yet some constants have definitely become clear. Most notably, in the heartland of ISIS territories, including control over major cities like Mosul and Raqqa, there is a lack of local opposition to fundamentally undermine its rule, and that dynamic is highly unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. In part, this is because of ISIS's comprehensive state presentation and bureaucratic structure that bring a sense of order amid years of chaos. The internal security apparatus and intelligence gathering is also rigid, being able to suppress signs of rebellion within ISIS's own ranks and playing members of the same tribe against each other, helping to suppress a repetition of the "Sahwa" phenomenon that rolled back ISIS's predecessor Islamic State of Iraq in the Iraq War.
Linked to the state presentation is the problem of ISIS financing. Since ISIS assumes all aspects of a state from education to services, there are plenty of avenues for income beyond oil and gas infrastructure and antiquities smuggling: foremost in taxes, ranging from school registration fees to garbage disposal and landline phone subscriptions. This is by far the most important revenue for ISIS, and thus the state presentation, while needing critical analysis, also needs to be taken more seriously in this context.
Airstrikes on oil infrastructure have not critically undermined ISIS finances, as ISIS has simply responded by raising taxes in various parts of its territories. The problem is compounded by the fact that ISIS territories do not exist in isolation from their wider milieu. People in rebel-held areas, for example, readily do business in ISIS territory, finding the security situation there ideal, as one contact in Azaz put it to me. This prevents the drying up of the cash flow in ISIS-held areas…
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
IN IRAN TALKS, KHAMENEI CALLS THE SHOTS, NOT OBAMA
Yossi Melman
Jerusalem Post, June 29, 2015
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can be temporarily satisfied. Due to good intelligence the Iran nuclear talks will probably not be finalized before the deadline on Tuesday. Every day that passes has to be considered an achievement for Netanyahu and anyone else who opposes an agreement. It is very likely the talks will be extended – although not forever.
The US seems anxious to clinch a deal in a matter of days. If it is achieved by July 4, Congress will have only 30 days to review the agreement. If there is no agreement by July 9, the congressional review period will be 60 days and, then, anything can happen. Thus, President Barack Obama wishes to stamp the deal as quickly as possible. But it is not entirely in his hands. The power broker is Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He calls the shots.
After three extensive meetings with Secretary of State John Kerry, Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif left the talks in Vienna and flew home for consultations with Khamenei. Zarif and his team feared that their communication lines were intercepted. They don’t even trust their secured and coded phones and computers. Media and experts publications claimed Israeli intelligence was eavesdropping at the hotels where the various rounds of talks were taking place.
Zarif’s trip is also evidence that he doesn’t have the authority to finalize a deal; a deal that most of its clauses, including the stumbling blocks, have been known for months. Judging from past precedents, it is not sure that Zarif will return to Vienna with his supreme leader’s blessing. In the past, Khamenei authorized his nuclear team to sign an agreement, and then due to domestic pressure from his radicals he backed off. Khamenei’s approach may well be revisited – first let’s sign and then we’ll see.
One has to be completely stupid to dare predicting the chance of a deal being finalized. The gaps, as stated by the foreign ministers of Germany, France and UK, remain large. They revolve around all well-known controversial topics: the demand that Iran opens its suspected military sites for international inspection; that it makes its scientists, especially those involved in suspicious military programs in the past available for international questioning; and to accept that sanctions are not lifted until Iran meets its obligations according to the agreement once it is signed.
In short, the chance of clinching a deal remains to be seen. Yes, logic says an agreement is an Iranian imperative and yes, the US administration is very hot to have it. But once again with Iran’s leader having the final word anything can happen. Nothing is assured.
Netanyahu: ISIS is Near Our Border: Itamar Eichner, Ynet, July 1, 2015—PM offers condolences for lost ones in Islamic State attacks in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula; 'We are partners with the Egyptians in our battle against radical Islamic terrorism.'
ISIS Threatens Hamas, Fatah and 'State of the Jews' in Video: Elad Benari, Arutz Sheva, July 1, 2015—Islamic State (ISIS) insurgents on Tuesday threatened to topple Hamas in Gaza, accusing the group of being “insufficiently stringent” about religious enforcement, according to Reuters.
For Egypt, Avenging Sinai Attack May Include Striking Gaza: Avi Issacharoff, Times of Israel, July 2, 2014—Throughout the night, the echoes of explosions from the Egyptian airstrikes on various targets in the northern Sinai Peninsula could be heard on the Israeli side of the border.
Plan B For Iran: Michael Crowley, Politico, June 24, 2015 —President Barack Obama’s nuclear diplomacy with Iran may yet fail.
