Israeli Defense Minister: Don't Be Fooled by Iran's 'Charm Offensive': Moshe Ya'alon, Defense News, Dec. 13, 2015 — Sixty-seven years have passed since the founding of the State of Israel, 67 years of continuous security and diplomatic challenges stemming from a vehement opposition to our very existence by our neighboring Arab states and their supporting organizations.
What About Iran's "JCPOA"?: Lawrence A. Franklin, Gatestone Institute, Dec. 15, 2015— Iran is cheating already — or is it? What is Iran Up To?: Robert Swift, Jerusalem Post, Dec. 13, 2015 — It sounds like a Persian fairy tale in which a Janus-like leader smiles and glowers at once, depending on the angle of viewing.
Obama's Middle East Delusions: Efraim Karsh, Middle East Quarterly, Winter, 2016, 2015— As the only person to have won the Nobel Peace Prize on the basis of sheer hope rather than actual achievement, Barack Hussein Obama could be expected to do everything within his power to vindicate this unprecedented show of trust.
UN Watchdog Closes Probe into Iran Nukes, Drawing Israeli Ire: Times of Israel, Dec. 15, 2015
What it Means for Iran to be Welcomed Back into the International Community: Andrew Hammond, National Post, Dec. 7, 2015
Iran Taking Over Latin America: Joseph Humire, Gatestone Institute, Dec. 16, 2015
The Mideast War on Media: Kevin Sullivan, Real Clear World, Dec. 8, 2015
DON'T BE FOOLED BY IRAN'S 'CHARM OFFENSIVE'
Moshe Ya'alon
Defense News, Dec. 13, 2015
Sixty-seven years have passed since the founding of the State of Israel, 67 years of continuous security and diplomatic challenges stemming from a vehement opposition to our very existence by our neighboring Arab states and their supporting organizations. In the past, the flagbearers of this opposition fueled the conflict with nationalistic pan-Arab ideology (Nasserism, Ba'athism, pan-Arabism). Their use of conventional armed forces to attack Israel was defeated time and again, as the Israel Defense Forces increasingly gained a substantial military advantage based on advanced technology and professional abilities. This, in turn, led the Arabs to focus on achieving non-conventional capabilities — challenging Israel with rockets, missiles, guerilla warfare and terror.
As the star of pan-Arabism/Arab nationalism faded, radical Islam (both Shia and Sunni) rose in its place. This new ideology is driving the current wave of terror that aims to harm Israel and its citizens, in various ways — within Israel, along its borders and across seas. This wave of terror, be it sponsored by Palestinian Islamic organizations like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad or sponsored by regional/international radical forces like Hezbollah and Global Jihad (Daesh and al-Qaida), has turned Israel into the front line of the free world in the battle against this murderous terror that aims to kill as many infidels as possible — which is how they view citizens of democratic, free countries.
The battle against radical Islamic terror will be the greatest challenge facing the family of nations, under the leadership of the United States, in the coming years. Israel, the sole democracy in the Middle East, is an inseparable part of this family of nations and will push for greater cooperation, in both intelligence and operational capacities, among the free world's countries. If the terrorists and their operators will not be stopped at their points of origin, where they are indoctrinated with murderous ideology and receive vigorous training, they will reach the capitals of every nation in the free world where they will brutally murder citizens, exporting their reign of terror. This is what happened in Paris and what can easily happen in other global cities…
This is a war over our core values and our way of life. This is a war of cultures. On one side is a culture that values death and destruction and kills hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, including women and children — a culture that conducts cruel suppression of ancient Christian communities, stages public hangings of homosexuals and holds a complete disregard for women's basic rights. On the opposing side, there is our culture — that of the Western world that places highest value on freedom and equality for all, regardless of religion, race, gender or sexual orientation.
The driving force behind this opposing, evil culture is Iran. To clarify, the nuclear agreement signed with Iran will not reduce the threat of this regime on the entire free world. On the contrary. The merciless Iranian regime, who typifies Israel as the "Little Satan" and threatens to obliterate it from the map, holds equal discontent toward the United States, termed the "Great Satan." As Iran gains power in the post-agreement era, Israel is faced with an additional substantial challenge.
Iran is the chief instigator of terror and instability in the Middle East, employing Hezbollah, the Quds Forces of the Revolutionary Guards and its support of a variety of terror organizations to this end. However, one would be mistaken to think this is the extent of Iran's evil aspirations and activities. Currently, Iran operates dormant and active terror cells throughout Europe, the Americas, Africa and the Far East. Its proxies are busy planning vicious attacks, collecting intelligence on Western targets and stockpiling arms in various hideaways scattered throughout global capitals.
The agreement with Iran and the lifting of sanctions enable Iran to continue to sponsor, train, arm and operate terror organizations in the Middle East and across the world. Thanks to this agreement, Iran is able to do so without the heavy weight of the sanctions — while it continues to aspire toward nuclear capabilities, even if they remain 10 to 15 years in the future. This is a huge danger to the Western world and an immediate challenge during the coming year. It is essential to say, in the most clear-cut manner, that Iran is completely and utterly on the dark side. Not only that, but they sit at the helm of the forces of evil. We should not be fooled by their deceitful charm offensive. Iran remains a huge threat on the Western world and the security of its citizens.
The coming year, especially, and the years to follow, are crucial for Israel and the Israel Defense Forces. We continue to build and strengthen our defenses while keeping an open eye on the dramatic changes transpiring throughout the Middle East. The IDF in the coming years will be a very different force, compared with that of 20, 30 and 40 years ago. It will be, and I may say it already is, a force that combines tremendous firepower coupled with the ability to mobilize and operate elite forces on land, in the air, at sea, and even underground. The IDF also employs super advanced war machinery that can suddenly strike at any point in the Middle East, supported by highly sophisticated cyber and intelligence capabilities.
Our closest ally and greatest friend, the United States, is providing essential support — both quantitatively and qualitatively — to this reshaping of the IDF. The unusually close relationship between the defense establishments, militaries and intelligence corps of the United States and Israel serve as the cornerstone of our national security.
Lawrence A. Franklin
Gatestone Institute, Dec. 15, 2015
Iran is cheating already — or is it? Iran has not signed anything, so presumably it cannot be cheating on something it never agreed to – as predicted on these pages half a year ago. The self-appointed P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), elected by no one but themselves, should be embarrassed to find that they have made a deal with no one but themselves. The lavishly touted and lavishly dangerous "Iran Deal" not only paves the way for Iran to have nuclear weapons, as it was planning, anyway; it also rewards Iran's repeated violations of the Non-Proliferation Treaty — which it did sign — with up to $150 billion. With a punishment like that, we should all start violating commitments.
Iran's recent missile tests have been undermining the rationale of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the P5+1 signed with itself. If Iran is concerned that its missile tests might have violated multiple UN Resolutions, a paltry detail such as that clearly has not bothered anyone before, so why should it bother anyone now? The media's emphasis on the JCPOA has sadly neglected any in-depth coverage of Iran's own comprehensive plan of action, which seems to consist of developing nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and related systems to deliver them.
While Western diplomats were congratulating themselves on their JCPOA arrangement, Iran sent a "slap-in-the-face" signal to the Free World by launching an Emad ["Pillar"] ballistic missile on October 10. On December 8, State Department spokesperson John Kirby indirectly acknowledged the launch of a second ballistic missile, fired on November 21. Kirby was quick to point out that test was not a violation of the JCPOA.
The launches are violations, however, of UN Security Council Resolution #2231, which bans ballistic missile tests by Iran. Although these tests do not defy the letter of the JCPOA, they do defy the spirit of it. Even though the initial missile test was denounced by the U.S. and allied UN representatives, no action has so far been taken against Iran. The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, did condemn the October test and probably will also condemn the second test. But if this is outrage, that may be the extent of it.
What seems clear is that Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the ballistic missile program, is attempting to goad the West into additional punitive action against the Islamic Republic. Such response would serve to strengthen the hardline opposition to the JCPOA in Iran. Further, if the United States does nothing but issue condemnatory rhetoric, it will be interpreted by the regime as additional confirmation that the U.S. desires a nuclear agreement at virtually any cost.
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), after its investigation into the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of Iran's past nuclear weapons development activities, was forced, thanks to Tehran's lack of cooperation and transparency to deliver an inconclusive initial report on December 2 The Iranian regime's officials, such as Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi, have demanded the immediate lifting of the 12 UN Resolutions against Iran when the IAEA Board of Governors votes on the final PMD report on December 15.
The IAEA cannot therefore confirm with certainty that Iran does not already possess a nuclear bomb, or whether or not Tehran is presumably still pursuing one. The IAEA Board of Governors is, nevertheless, not expected to challenge Tehran's assertion that it ceased any such activities more than a decade ago.
Iran currently has several types of ballistic missiles in varying stages of development. The range of these missiles extends from the regional to the intercontinental — with a version of one missile capable of reaching the continental United States. The most touted operational system is the Shahab ("Meteor") program, with several follow-on versions. The Shahab system has benefited by seemingly close cooperation with North Korea's ballistic missile program, Russian nuclear weapons engineers who were unemployed after the Soviet Union imploded, and China's direct and indirect technical assistance.
The principal threat to regional states, particularly to Israel, is that one does not know what one does not know — in this instance, the stage of Iran's nuclear weapons programs. Action by the U.S. Congress to inquire why the public disclosure of Iranian ballistic missile tests is being disseminated in dribs and drabs is long overdue, especially as America's technical intelligence collection methods provide immediate and certain knowledge of such tests.
Although the U.S. also cannot be certain of Iran's intentions, it would be advisable to assume that Iran means what it says: "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." If one assumes that these statements, made by a regime that stones women to death, are not mere propaganda, but ideological commitments, the time to demonstrate the Free World's resolve by way of strategic military exercises on Iran's borders is long overdue.
Robert Swift
Jerusalem Post, Dec. 13, 2015
It sounds like a Persian fairy tale in which a Janus-like leader smiles and glowers at once, depending on the angle of viewing. This is the world inhabited by Iran observers since the signing of The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on July 14, 2015. The deal, signed between Iran and six world powers, exists to prevent Iran from obtaining weapons-grade nuclear material at least for the next 15 years On the one hand, Iranian leaders are smiling on the America that facilitated the agreement, whereby the West has lifted crippling economic sanctions that paralyzed the economy of the Islamic Republic.
On the other hand, Iranian leaders are engaged in vituperative ad hominem attacks against the United Sates and have intensified their efforts at a cyber war against Washington institutions. Tehran always shows two sides, affirms Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland. One side: President Rouhani’s moderate approach, where the country appears open to negotiations. The other side: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s “more contentious” rhetoric.
The question is, he added, “Which one is the real face?” Late last month, Khamenei took to Iranian national television to accuse the United States—“the enemy”—of “setting up a network within a nation and inside a country mainly through the two means: money and sexual attractions, to change ideals, beliefs and consequently the lifestyle.” This was, he expounded, in comments subsequently posted on his website, the manner in which the US was influencing hearts and minds in Iraq, and thus fueling the Islamic State (ISIS.)
Also last month, the Obama administration announced that it was the target of a concerted cyberattack launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran, and that email and social-media accounts of senior officials had been hacked. The emails and social media accounts of employees of the US Office of Iranian Affairs and the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs were compromised, and, according to a White House source speaking with The Wall Street Journal, journalists and academics were also among those targeted.
The IRGC has engaged in cyberwarfare against US agencies before, but the frequency has increased significantly since the arrest of Iranian-American businessman Siamak Namazi in late October, and the confiscation of his computer. The power struggle between Rouhani, Iran’s elected president, and Khamenei, the Supreme Leader elected and supervised by the Assembly of Experts, has intensified since the adoption of the nuclear deal, resulting, some observers say, in a crackdown against pro-Western writers.
The JCPOA also seems to have emboldened Iran to act on the international stage. Yoel Guzansky, a research fellow with the Institute for National Security Studies, told The Media Line that agreement has bolstered Iran’s non-nuclear foreign policy agenda in the Middle East, without regard for American interests. “The agreement gave Iran more confidence,” he said, while at the same time “feeling less vulnerable, more immune to criticism.”
“On the opposite side, the West is less capable of criticizing Iran on its behavior because Iran is seen to be reaching for the nuclear agreement.” The JCPOA obliges Iran to reduce its stockpiles of nuclear material and the number of functional centrifuges it possesses. These represent the basic building blocks of the nuclear program Iran always claimed had a solely civilian purpose, which the West believed was aimed at paving the path towards nuclear weapons. In exchange for the curtailment of this plan, the governments negotiating on behalf of the West – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China and Germany, known as the P5+1 nations – lifted economic sanctions.
Analysts as august as the former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey, believe Iran’s proxy actors in the region will benefit from increased cash flow in the months following adoption of the JCPOA. In his last visit to Israel before retiring three months ago, Dempsey said he anticipated the Iranians would, “invest in their surrogates; I think they will invest in additional military capability.” Speaking to Israeli government officials, who vehemently opposed the adoption of the pact, Dempsey added it was his expectation that, “sanctions relief, which results in more economic power and more purchasing power for the Iranian regime… it's not all going to flow into the economy to improve the lot of the average Iranian citizen.”
While not brazenly attacking US interests in the chaotic Syrian war theater, Iran’s policy is undermining American positions. “The fact that Shi’ite militias, Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran are attacking the moderate opposition forces, and less ISIS, this is direct interference with US interests,” Yoel Guzansky pointed out. While JCPOA were ongoing, National Security Agency Director Admiral Michael Rogers told a House Intelligence Committee hearing in September, the number of Iranian cyber-attacks against the US fell. As of November, however, there has been a surge of attacks, including direct attacks on the State Department website via social media platforms. “One of the pluses with this tactic is the possibility of denial – Iran doesn’t have to dirty its hands,” Guzansky said.
Efraim Karsh
Middle East Quarterly, Winter, 2016
As the only person to have won the Nobel Peace Prize on the basis of sheer hope rather than actual achievement, Barack Hussein Obama could be expected to do everything within his power to vindicate this unprecedented show of trust. Instead he has presided over a clueless foreign policy that has not only exacerbated ongoing regional conflicts but made the world a far more dangerous place. Nowhere has this phenomenon been more starkly demonstrated than in the Middle East where the Nobel laureate has abetted Tehran's drive for regional hegemony and brought the regime within a stone's throw of nuclear weapons; driven Iraq and Libya to the verge of disintegration; expedited the surge of Islamist terrorism; exacerbated the Syrian civil war and its attendant refugee problem; made the intractable Palestinian-Israeli conflict almost irresolvable; and plunged Washington's regional influence and prestige to unprecedented depths, paving the road in grand style to Russia's resurgence.
Consider Tehran's quest for nuclear weapons, perhaps the foremost threat to Middle Eastern stability, if not to world peace, in the foreseeable future. In a sharp break from the Bush administration's attempts to coerce the mullahs to desist from this relentless drive, which culminated in five U.N. Security Council resolutions imposing a string of escalating economic sanctions, Obama opted for the road of "engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect" with the presumptuous aim of mending the 30-year-long U.S.-Iranian breach and reintegrating the Islamist regime in Tehran into the international system…
In his first major presidential interview, given to the al-Arabiya TV network a week after inauguration, Obama promised that if the mullahs agreed "to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us." Two months later, in a videotaped greeting on the occasion of the Iranian new year, he reassured them of his commitment "to diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues before us," claiming that reciprocating this "new beginning" would win Tehran substantial international gains and "demonstrate the true greatness of the Iranian people and civilization." He amplified this claim in his celebrated June 2009 Cairo address to the Muslim world going out of his way to empathize with Iran's supposed nuclear sensibilities.
Rather than win him the mullahs' goodwill and admiration, Obama's appeasing demeanor cast him as weak and indecisive, and this image was further reinforced by his knee jerk response to their brutal suppression of popular protest over the rigging of the June 2009 Iranian presidential elections. That the U.S. president—who had made a point in his inaugural address to dismiss "those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent" as being "on the wrong side of history" and who lectured Muslim regimes throughout the world of the need to rule "through consent, not coercion"—remained conspicuously aloof in the face of the flagrant violation of these very principles did not pass unnoticed. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad demanded Washington's apology for its supposed meddling in the elections while Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i, ridiculed Obama for privately courting Tehran while censuring it in public. "The U.S. president said that we were waiting for the day when people would take to the streets," he stated in a Friday sermon. "At the same time, they write letters saying that they want to have ties and that they respect the Islamic Republic. Which are we to believe?"
Khamene'i was not the only one baffled by Obama's real intentions. In a secret memorandum to top White House officials on January 4, 2010, Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned that "the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran's steady progress toward nuclear capability." He was particularly alarmed by the absence of an effective strategy to prevent Tehran from amassing all the major parts of a nuclear bomb—fuel, designs and detonators—while stopping just short of assembling a fully operational weapon, thus remaining within the bounds of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty (NPT) while becoming a "virtual" nuclear power. "If their policy is to go to the threshold but not assemble a nuclear weapon, how do you tell that they have not assembled?" he cautioned in a nationwide television interview. "I don't actually know how you would verify that."
Apparently unperturbed by this danger, in 2011, Obama passed a secret message to Khamene'i (via Oman's Sultan Qaboos) expressing readiness for nuclear talks based on a U.S. recognition of a nuclear Iran. As Tehran was unimpressed, the president was forced to authorize harsh sanctions at the end of the year. But he did so with the utmost reluctance under heavy congressional pressure and with the Damocles sword of a preventive Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities hovering over his head…
[To Read the Full Article Click the Following Link—Ed.]
UN Watchdog Closes Probe into Iran Nukes, Drawing Israeli Ire: Times of Israel, Dec. 15, 2015—The UN atomic watchdog’s board Tuesday closed a long-running probe into Iran’s past efforts to develop nuclear weapons, removing an important obstacle to implementing July’s landmark deal with big powers, diplomats said.
What it Means for Iran to be Welcomed Back into the International Community: Andrew Hammond, National Post, Dec. 7, 2015—Following the landmark nuclear deal between world powers — including China, Russia and the United States — in July, Iran has been asserting itself significantly more forcefully on the international stage, after decades of international estrangement.
Iran Taking Over Latin America: Joseph Humire, Gatestone Institute, Dec. 16, 2015—During the last couple months, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been playing a political tug of war over Latin America. On November 10, 2015, Iran's deputy foreign minister held a private meeting with ambassadors from nine Latin American countries to reaffirm the Islamic Republic's desire to "enhance and deepen ties" with the region.
The Mideast War on Media: Kevin Sullivan, Real Clear World, Dec. 8, 2015—Last Thursday marked Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian's 500th day in an Iranian jail cell. Arrested and imprisoned by government security forces on July 22, 2014, Rezaian was convicted and sentenced to prison last month on dubious charges of espionage by a revolutionary court in Tehran.
